076
FXUS64 KMAF 162337
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
637 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

VIS and IR Sat show a few high clouds over western portions of the
area moving northeast. Skies are expected to remain mostly clear
today with surface high pressure over south-central Texas, with a
stray shower or storm possible in the vicinity of the Davis
Mountains into the Upper Trans Pecos and Stockton Plateau. High
temperatures today continue the above average trend, although only
3 to 6 degrees above average and rising into the 80s and 90s.
Tonight, a LLJ will develop and advect in moisture into the area,
with 60 degree dew point temperatures extending up along the Pecos
River into the SE NM plains, with 50 degree dew point
temperatures elsewhere. Lows nearly 10 degrees above average are
forecast, 60s with 70s over the eastern Permian Basin, along the
Pecos River, and near the Rio Grande.

Tomorrow, a trough currently over the west coast is on track in
deterministic and ensembles to develop northeast into the northern
Rockies. In advance of this trough, thicknesses will increase and
result in temperatures warmer than today, 5 to 10 degrees above
average in the 90s, 80s over higher elevations, with continued
upslope flow ahead of a developing prefrontal trough across the SE
NM plains into westernmost portions of SW TX. This synoptic setup
yields deep-layer shear of 35-45 kts over the area, which has not
been seen here for a while and will help organize and maintain
updrafts in any storms that do form. Mid-level lapse rates will be
steepest to the northwest of the CWA, so hail risk is not
currently expected to be a major concern in any stronger storms
that develop. Inverted-v soundings in models associated with dry
subcloud layers over SE NM plains into the Upper Trans Pecos
indicate damaging outflow winds could be a concern in the
strongest storms. SPC has a marginal risk to the north of Lea and
Eddy Counties Tuesday, so widespread severe is not anticipated,
especially considering stronger height falls and large scale
ascent aiding storm development will occur farther north over the
Central into Northern Great Plains.

Tuesday night, lows will remain above average, and with increased
clouds limiting radiational cooling, around 10 to 12 degrees
warmer than normal, with 70s over most of the Permian Basin,
Stockton Plateau, and Rio Grande, and 60s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

By the middle of the week, a broad trough remains in place across
the western CONUS, with ridging from the southern Great Plains to
the Midwest, and an upper-low over the Southeast. This pattern
finally begins to break down as we head through the remainder of
the week into the weekend. This may allow for cooler temperatures
and rain chances by the end of the period, but let`s start from
the beginning.

With the above pattern in place, temperatures continue their above
normal trend with most locations in the upper 80s and low 90s on
Wednesday. Mild nights remain with upper 60s and low 70s offering
limiting relief. A glancing shortwave trough may be enough for an
isolated shower or thunderstorm across the far northern reaches of
the area, though elsewhere continues the dry spell. Thursday is
expected to have similar conditions, though temperatures may be a
touch warmer and rain is out of the question.

Friday into this weekend, a secondary shortwave rounds the larger
trough across the West. This feature begins to slowly translate
east across the Southwest. This won`t initially aid
temperatures, which remain largely the same, but the influx of
ascent and moisture should allow for a slight chance of
thunderstorms each day through the weekend. Once this trough
finally ejects across the Great Plains late this weekend or early
next week, a cold front may impinge on the region. This hopefully
returns temperatures to closer to normal with perhaps further rain
chances. The exact timing and details remain uncertain, but
confidence in this overall pattern progression is high. Stay tuned
for all the details later this week.

-Chehak

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours. Winds will
generally remain southeasterly through the period, with gusts to
20-25kt this evening diminishing by around 01-02Z and returning
after 15Z Tuesday. The primary concerns are thunderstorms late in
the period, though low potential (10-20%) and uncertainty in
timing precludes mention in TAFs at this time. If storms develop,
CNM, HOB, and PEQ would have the best chance to see storms after
19Z, with associated impacts expected to be lightning and erratic
gusty winds. Will defer to later TAF issuances for potential TS
inclusion.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               70  93  72  95 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                 68  93  67  95 /   0  20  20  10
Dryden                   70  93  72  96 /  20   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            69  94  71  97 /  10  10   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           65  85  65  87 /   0  20  20  10
Hobbs                    65  90  67  94 /   0  10  20  20
Marfa                    62  89  65  92 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport     69  91  72  94 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                   70  91  72  94 /   0   0  10  10
Wink                     71  96  74  97 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...84