Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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271 FXUS64 KMAF 191726 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1226 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday afternoon) Issued at 340 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Another breezy night and morning as the low level jet continues to push low level moisture across the area. Low clouds will move in east of Midland/Odessa and Fort Stockton. These clouds will lift, but deeper moisture associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One begins to move into the region as the system moves onshore later today. Mid level clouds move into the region and rain chances begin to increase, particularly across the higher elevations where terrain will aid in shower development. A few storms will be possible, but a lack of instability should keep storms sub-severe. With the additional moisture and the thermal ridge pushing further west, temperatures end up 5-10 degrees cooler than yesterday with most places reaching the low to mid 90s. Shower chances remain through tonight and increase into Thursday as the tropical system moves through South Texas and into Mexico. Expect breezy, near advisory criteria winds over the higher elevations of Brewster and Presidio tonight and into Thursday morning. Highest rain chances move into the Big Bend and across to the Marfa Plateau Thursday afternoon with a sharper cutoff to shower coverage north of the I-10 corridor. Rain amounts have been gradually trending lower overall, but highest amounts continue to be expected over the Big Bend and Terrell County to the northwest towards the Davis Mountains and Marfa Plateau. Highs areawide take a tumble as clouds and rain keep temperatures in the 70s to low 80s. -Stickney && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 340 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Thursday night, the remnants of potential tropical cyclone 1 will move offshore into the Pacific south of Baja del Sur. The track of this system, as far south as it is, suggests NBM POPs are probably overdone a bit, as QPF has been dropping over the past few runs. Regardless, best chances of rain look to remain west of the Pecos Thursday evening, diminishing through the day Friday. `Wouldn`t be surprised if POPs dropped off faster, considering the expected location of the disturbance Thursday night, and the tendency of models to unrealistically prolong these events. Otherwise, Friday marks the start of a warming trend that will continue through the duration of the extended forecast. Friday looks to be the coolest day in the extended, as the upper ridge is forecast to be centered over western TN or so. Assuming moist soils and a lingering tropical airmass/convection, highs Friday should top out ~ 5-7 F below normal. Through the weekend and into next week, the upper ridge will build southwest, w/long range models placing it over Arizona/New Mexico by Tuesday afternoon. As such, thicknesses will increase each day, finally bringing highs at or above normal everywhere by Tuesday. After Friday, rain chances will be confined to diurnally-driven activity in the Davis Mountains and Sacramentos. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Most terminals have lifted to VFR ceilings this afternoon with the exception of HOB which should remain MVFR for the next few hours. Ceilings will fall once again to MVFR after midnight at all terminals. Elevated easterly winds continue area-wide with intermittent gusts. Rain showers begin to move into the area late in this TAF period but timing remains uncertain at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 70 84 70 92 / 30 40 20 0 Carlsbad 70 77 69 84 / 30 80 70 40 Dryden 70 81 70 85 / 80 80 80 40 Fort Stockton 69 79 69 87 / 40 80 70 30 Guadalupe Pass 63 69 64 77 / 30 80 80 50 Hobbs 65 77 66 87 / 30 60 50 20 Marfa 61 73 61 82 / 40 90 80 50 Midland Intl Airport 70 81 69 89 / 30 50 40 10 Odessa 70 80 70 89 / 30 60 40 10 Wink 72 82 72 90 / 20 70 60 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...91