284
FXUS64 KMAF 201117
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
617 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Tropical Storm Alberto will make landfall in Mexico later this
morning and bring a plume of tropical moisture through Mexico and
into West Texas and SE NM. Low clouds and widespread showers will be
the name of the game through the day today with a majority of the
rainfall south of the I-10 corridor. SE NM and the Permian Basin
will see markedly less rain overall, but should still see something
measurable(>=0.01") when all is said and done. Across Terrell and
Brewster counties amounts look to top our between a half inch to
an inch with locally higher amounts due to terrain influences or
training of showers. With overcast skies and intermittent rain,
highs struggle to reach the low 80s for most with 70s in the
higher elevations.

Expect showers to continue on and off overnight tonight as the bulk
of the moisture moves to the northwest into southern New Mexico.
Morning lows end up in the 60s to low 70s for most. Decreasing
showers and clouds on Friday allow temperatures to rebound back into
the upper 80s to low 90s for most. The highest chances for rain
Friday afternoon will be confined to the higher elevations and to
areas to the west with little, if any precipitation expected across
the Permian Basin.

-Stickney

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

The extended forecast is rather pedestrian, as all the interesting
weather is front-loaded in the short term.

Friday, a flat, upper ridge is forecast to cover the southern CONUS,
centered just above the ArklaTex.  This feature will be in the
process of developing WSW, arriving over New Mexico Saturday night
or so, and remaining there through the extended.  The net result of
this will be a gradual increase in temperatures each day, with highs
pulling above normal again by Tuesday afternoon.  Temperatures peak
Wednesday as highs top out ~ 7-9 F above normal.
Thicknesses/temperatures come down a bit Thursday.  W/this in mind,
heat advisories will return as soon as Monday.

With respect to convection, prospects look slim-to-none under the
ridge, and confined to diurnally-driven activity over the higher
terrain, if that.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

MVFR CIGs are slow to move in but expect ceilings to fall to near or
into IFR conditions during the day and into tonight. Intermittent
showers are expected and amendments will likely be needed.
Easterly winds with gusts around 20-25kts will be seen into the
day before decreasing tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               83  71  91  70 /  50  20   0   0
Carlsbad                 79  69  87  68 /  80  70  50   0
Dryden                   83  71  85  70 /  80  80  40  10
Fort Stockton            81  70  88  69 /  80  70  30   0
Guadalupe Pass           70  65  80  65 /  70  70  60  10
Hobbs                    78  67  87  66 /  70  50  10   0
Marfa                    74  61  83  59 /  90  80  50  10
Midland Intl Airport     80  71  89  70 /  60  30   0   0
Odessa                   80  71  88  70 /  70  40   0   0
Wink                     83  73  91  72 /  70  60  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...93