Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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088 FXUS64 KMAF 101725 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1225 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 214 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms yesterday afternoon and evening have left a plethora of boundaries across the region, any one of which could act as a focus for thunderstorms this afternoon. Aloft, a shortwave that`s been slowly meandering east- northeastward from Baja across the Four Corners the past couple of days is progged to be absorbed into the back side of the broader eastern CONUS trough, with the aforementioned shortwave developing a negative tilt by this afternoon. The presence of this trough, as well as a cold front sagging southward across the area, will keep low-level moisture elevated, with NAEFS standardized anomalies indicating precipitable water values on the order of 1 to 1.5 standard deviations above normal. Cloud cover, increased moisture, and a post-frontal environment will keep temperatures on the cooler side today, a welcome break from the unseasonably hot temperatures we`ve faced since last week. Highs this afternoon top out in the 80s for portions of Southeast New Mexico, the Permian Basin, and higher terrain, with lower to middle 90s elsewhere, save for the Rio Grande Valley where lower 100s will be focused. Regardless, everyone will be at least a few degrees cooler than yesterday, with temperatures near and even below normal for many. The primary focus for today is the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. In spite of the cooler temperatures, the presence of the frontal boundary as well as the aforementioned shortwave will aid in ascent, with instability on the order of 1500-2000 J/kg progged to develop by mid to late afternoon after early morning cloud cover dissipates. The difference between today and the past few days is that there will be substantially more deep-layer shear for storms to work with, thus the threat for organized convection is increased from prior days. Steep lapse rates will lend to primarily a damaging wind and large hail threat with the strongest storms today, though locally heavy rain and flash flooding will also be a concern, particularly for areas that received rainfall over the past 24 hours. While convection will initially be discrete and/or multicellular, CAMs are indicating potential for a southeastward moving MCS to develop during the evening off of the higher terrain of Southeast New Mexico and progress across the Permian Basin. If this were to occur, an increased damaging wind threat would be realized through the evening hours. Storms that develop this afternoon into this evening will gradually exit the area to the east, though a few showers and storms may linger over far eastern areas through the night. Lows will bottom out in the 60s and lower 70s across the area, pretty close to normal for early June. Tuesday will be a much quieter weather day as the trough slides to the east of the region, yielding increasing subsidence on its western periphery ahead of building ridging to the west. Thus, while storms are possible once again Tuesday afternoon, they will be confined mainly to the topographically favored areas of Southwest Texas as well as across the eastern Permian Basin in closer proximity to the shortwave as it translates southeastward toward Central Texas. Some of the storms in this area may become strong, with hail and gusty winds again the primary concerns. Given the building ridge to the west and the departing trough to the east, temperatures begin rebounding on Tuesday, with highs progged to climb into the lower to middle 90s for most, with 100s along the Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys. So, for those who like cooler weather, today`s your chance to enjoy it before we get thrown back into the blast furnace later this week. JP && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 214 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 The last of widespread rain chances from this weekend`s storm system will pass to the north and east of the area Tuesday night, as an upper trough providing lift for showers and storms moves away from the area. Ridging builds in into the end of next weekend, with subsidence associated with the ridging suppressing more widespread rain chances, and rain chances mainly limited to diurnally driven showers and storms forced by heating of elevated terrain across SE NM and W Texas. Main risk with any storms will be fire starts from lightning. Tuesday night will continue trend of warmer than average nights, with 60s for most, 70s along the Pecos River and near the Rio Grande. Wednesday, highs will be near normal for mid June, with 90s for most places, 80s over the higher elevations and Western Low Rolling Plains, and triple digit readings over parts of Reeves County, lower regions of Culberson County, and along the Rio Grande. Wednesday night will be warmer than Tuesday night but still feature lows falling into the 60s and 70s for most places. Thursday features warmer than average highs for mid June with 90s, triple digit readings along the Pecos River, over Reeves County Plains and Stockton Plateau, and near the Rio Grande. Lows Thursday night have lows only falling into the mid 70s, 60s only over usual cooler spots in northern Lea County and Permian Basin and higher elevations. Friday through Saturday sees much the same as Thursday for highs and Thursday night for lows. Sunday and Monday, highs in the triple digits or higher, 90s over higher elevations and northern portion of Lea County and Permian Basin make an appearance, with lows only falling into the mid 70s, 60s over usual cooler spots. Next Monday, highs 10 to 15 degrees above average are apparent, with 105+ degree readings along the Pecos River, over the Reeves County Plains into Western Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau, and along the Rio Grande. The "cooler" temperatures in the short term once again give way to summertime heat. Make sure to limit time outdoors during the day when the heat ramps up! && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Winds generally out of the N/NE behind a stalled cold front, with low clouds impacting the northern terminals. As clouds clear this afternoon, TS will develop with most sites having VCTS through this evening. Current impacts look low with only a small area expecting to see storms, but will monitor and update as needed. Storms should move out region-wide by 05z, with possible low CIGs redeveloping Tuesday morning for KMAF. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 68 89 68 92 / 30 30 20 10 Carlsbad 68 98 70 98 / 20 10 0 0 Dryden 73 98 73 96 / 20 10 10 0 Fort Stockton 70 99 70 98 / 20 20 0 10 Guadalupe Pass 65 91 67 92 / 20 10 0 10 Hobbs 64 90 65 93 / 40 10 10 0 Marfa 60 96 60 95 / 20 20 0 20 Midland Intl Airport 69 92 69 93 / 40 20 10 0 Odessa 69 93 69 93 / 40 20 10 0 Wink 70 98 72 99 / 30 10 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...84 LONG TERM....94 AVIATION...88