342
FXUS64 KMAF 271639
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1139 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 133 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Another warm night is underway, but we are watching and outflow
boundary left over from storms that occurred to our north and
west. This boundary will likely wash out somewhere across the
Permian Basin later this morning with little fanfare. Most
locations are still in the 80s so will monitor for possible record
warm lows (came within one degree at MAF this morning). Upper
ridging will flatten across the Southern Plains today in response
to an upper trough moving across the Northern Rockies. You won`t
see a noticeable difference in todays weather other than less
storm activity across the west. High temperatures will still climb
into the 100s for most locations outside of the higher terrain.
We will near Heat Advisory criteria in a couple of locations once
again, but it will not quite be widespread enough. Isolated storms
are expected along and west of an Artesia to Presidio line by
afternoon where better monsoonal moisture lies. As we saw today,
there will be a threat for gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall
with these storms.

Friday looks like another hot one as the low level thermal ridge
amplifies across the region. Many locations in the plains could
approach or surpass the 105 degree mark with locations along the
river valleys near 110. Heat Advisories will likely be needed.
Expect another round of storms out west with a bit more coverage
than what we will see today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 133 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Upper ridging will strengthen this weekend over the Southern Plains,
but there is some good news. Southeasterly flow at the surface will
increase in response to a trough moving across the Northern Plains.
This will help shove some of the heat to our west with many
locations seeing highs back below 100. We will still see rain
chances highest across the higher terrain each afternoon this
weekend. A disturbance over E NM and the TX PH could help a few
storms make it into the northern Permian Basin late Saturday, but
most locations will remain dry.

Temperatures start to tick upward once again early next week as a
low level thermal ridge shifts east into our area. Isolated storm
chances remain out west Monday and Tuesday as the current monsoonal
pattern continues. There are signs in the long range models
indicating the upper ridge could break down across the area later
next week allowing for slight cooling and more widespread PoPs.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1136 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow. Forecast
soundings develop a widespread cu field this afternoon, w/bases
8-9 kft AGL, and a lesser one near the end of the forecast period,
w/bases 7-8 kft AGL.  Chances of convection are slim-to-none.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               77 106  77 101 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 77 103  77 101 /  10  20  10  20
Dryden                   75 102  76  97 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            76 105  76  99 /   0  10   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           73  94  74  94 /  20  30  20  30
Hobbs                    74 103  74 100 /   0  10  10  10
Marfa                    65  98  67  97 /  10  30  20  20
Midland Intl Airport     76 103  77  99 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   76 103  77  99 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     77 107  78 102 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...44