116
ACUS11 KWNS 252328
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252328
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-260130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1415
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0628 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Areas affected...the Texas Panhandle eastward into western and
northern Oklahoma and adjacent southern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 252328Z - 260130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Local risk for hail generally at or below golf ball size,
and wind gusts up to around 60 MPH will be possible early this
evening.  WW issuance not anticipated, due to the very isolated
nature of this risk.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a couple of small clusters of
storms -- one in the Texas Panhandle north of Amarillo, and the
other near the Kansas/Oklahoma border area -- in the western Osage
County Oklahoma vicinity.

The convection is occurring in conjunction with very
subtle/southeastward-moving ripples in the mid-level northwesterly
flow aloft, where a hot/moist boundary layer is contributing to 1500
to 2500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE.  However, with shear across this
region rather modest, organization should remain limited to
multicell clustering.  Some CAMs hint at a couple of hours of
upscale growth potential evolving with the western cluster, as a
southerly low-level jet develops across this area, and given
mid-level north-northwesterlies, southward propagation would be
possible.  Still, potential for damaging winds -- even in this
scenario -- would likely to remain sufficiently low so as to
preclude the need for WW issuance.

..Goss/Gleason.. 06/25/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   34910227 35510226 35990160 36140045 36589943 37369778
            37339702 36769587 36209564 35889572 35509843 34629945
            34570122 34910227