![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
446 ACUS11 KWNS 242231 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242231 MNZ000-NDZ000-250000- Mesoscale Discussion 1397 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0531 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Areas affected...Northern Minnesota and eastern/southeastern North Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 242231Z - 250000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along a cold front through this evening. Large hail up to 1.75-2.50" in diameter and damaging wind gusts near 60-70 mph will be possible. DISCUSSION...Latest satellite and radar imagery suggest thunderstorm development will continue to occur along a cold front extending northeast to southwest across portions of far northwestern MN and eastern ND. A moderate to extreme instability axis extends along and ahead of this cold front, where temperatures have climbed into the upper 80s, and dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s exist beneath steep mid-level lapse rates. VAD profiles and objective analysis across this region indicate sufficient deep layer effective shear (40-55 kt) is already in place. Storm organization and a few supercells appear likely along this axis through this evening. Large hail will initially be possible with the more discrete thunderstorms that develop, before cell mergers occur with an accompanying damaging wind threat later this evening as instability wanes. A severe thunderstorm watch will be needed soon. ..Barnes/Gleason.. 06/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...BIS... LAT...LON 49289478 49359501 49359514 49069518 48999616 48659642 47999797 47659849 46969846 46569837 46129801 46249736 47259559 48009426 48739425 48819460 49289478