Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 160757
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160757
MNZ000-NDZ000-160930-
Mesoscale Discussion 1288
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024
Areas affected...northeast ND into far northwest MN
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 423...
Valid 160757Z - 160930Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 423
continues.
SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms will continue shifting east through
early morning.
DISCUSSION...A line of storms will continue tracking east near 40
mph the next couple of hours, taking convection across northeast ND
into far northwest MN. Measured gusts the past hour or so have
typically been less than 50 kt. A southerly 850 mb low-level jet
around 25-30 kt ahead of convection, coupled with sufficient
instability and deep-layer shear, will maintain organized convection
for at least another couple of hours. Instability rapidly wanes with
eastward extent into MN as low-level moisture decreases, and storms
should weaken as they enter northwest MN. Locally strong/isolated
severe gusts of 45-60 mph will remain possible in the short term
across northeast ND. A downstream watch and/or aerial watch
extension is not expected.
..Leitman.. 06/16/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
LAT...LON 49099846 49049645 48569627 48089675 47789759 47589878
47679972 47989998 48679951 49079933 49099846