651
ACUS11 KWNS 171633
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171633
COZ000-WYZ000-NMZ000-MTZ000-171830-

Mesoscale Discussion 2077
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Areas affected...western and central Colorado....central into
eastern Wyoming

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 171633Z - 171830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A gradual increase in thunderstorm development appears
likely to continue through Noon-2 PM MDT.  While stronger storms
posing a risk for locally severe wind gusts probably will remain
widely scattered in the near term, it is possible this could become
more widespread across and east of the Continental Divide this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Downstream of a vigorous short wave trough, now in the
process of pivoting northeastward across the Great Basin, scattered
thunderstorm development is underway in the presence of weak to
modest destabilization.  Low-level lapse rates are still in the
process of steepening in response to boundary-layer heating and
mixing, beneath the leading edge of mid-level cooling.  However,
downward mixing of 40-50+ kt ambient deep-layer mean flow is already
contributing to severe gusts in the widely scattered stronger
storms.  This is likely to continue through the next few hours, as
the mid/upper trough approaches the Wyoming/Colorado Rockies and
boundary-layer destabilization progresses.

Although the extent of the severe weather potential into and across
the Continental Divide through 18-20Z remains a bit unclear, the
gradual upscale growth of a consolidating line of storms appears at
least possible along/ahead of the leading edge of the mid-level
cooling.  This may be accompanied by a strengthening surface cold
pool accompanied by potential for increasingly widespread strong to
severe wind gusts.

..Kerr/Gleason.. 09/17/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...BYZ...RIW...GJT...

LAT...LON   45310677 44470587 43470512 40750502 38910497 37430523
            36670750 37550837 39730847 40750851 42420854 43510758
            45310677