430
ACUS11 KWNS 161711
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161711
NCZ000-162015-

Mesoscale Discussion 2071
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1211 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Areas affected...coastal southern North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 161711Z - 162015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...While the risk for a brief tornado may not be negligible
across the southern North Carolina coastal plain, this potential
still appears low.  It is possible that it may not increase
appreciably either, but trends are being closely monitored.

DISCUSSION...The surface cyclone center appears to be slowly
approaching coastal areas to the west/west-northwest of Myrtle Beach
SC.  Forcing for ascent aided by strongest low-level convergence and
warm advection has been focused to its north, spreading inland
near/south through southwest of Wilmington.  This has been
contributing to the most vigorous thunderstorm development,
supported by inflow of tropically moist boundary-layer air within a
narrow offshore plume wrapping around the periphery of the cyclone.

Low-level hodographs across coastal southern North Carolina remain
sizable and clockwise curved, supporting at least a couple of
occasionally intensifying supercell structures over the past hour or
two.  However, inland of immediate coastal areas, the convection and
embedded mesocyclones probably have been based above at least a
residual shallow stable surface-based layer, based on surface
observations and Rapid Refresh forecast soundings.

Beneath a subsident mid-level dry slot wrapping around the southern
periphery of the cyclone, model output suggests that low-level
warming within a small inland advecting wedge may contribute to
modest boundary-layer destabilization through mid to late afternoon,
as the cyclone slowly begins to migrate inland.  However, with
strongest flow around 850 mb forecast to shift into the Carolina
Piedmont, model forecast soundings generally indicate that this may
coincide with shrinking and less clockwise curved low-level
hodographs.  Coupled with potentially increasing mid-level
inhibition, the risk for convection capable of producing tornadoes
remains uncertain.

..Kerr/Gleason.. 09/16/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM...

LAT...LON   33957840 34277866 34587686 34207681 33397770 33657804
            33957840