802
ACUS11 KWNS 261412
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261412
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-261515-

Mesoscale Discussion 2112
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0912 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Areas affected...southern Georgia...northern Florida and portions of
the Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 261412Z - 261515Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Tornado threat will continue to gradually increase in
advance of Hurricane Helene, across southern Georgia/northern
Florida and adjacent areas.  Tornado Watch issuance will likely be
needed in the next hour.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows widespread rain, and
embedded/small convective cores moving north-northwestward across
the northeastern Gulf and adjacent portions of the Florida
Panhandle.  Small/offshore cells are exhibiting low-level rotation,
moving northwestward toward Gulf and Franklin Counties, southwest of
Tallahassee.  With occasional rotation expected with convective
elements within the broader convective bands north and northeast of
Helene given increasingly favorable low-level shear, and thus a
long-duration tornado risk, a Tornado Watch will likely be needed
shortly.

..Goss/Mosier.. 09/26/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON   30378651 31518524 31578030 29318011 29368384 29338581
            30378651