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Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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811 ACUS11 KWNS 211825 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211825 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-212030- Mesoscale Discussion 1356 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Areas affected...parts of the Mid-MO to Upper MS Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 211825Z - 212030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A generally isolated severe threat should develop into late afternoon with a mix of wind/hail, along with a couple tornadoes possible. Uncertainty exists with the overall spatial extent of the severe threat with slow-moving storms expected. DISCUSSION...Convection is slowly increasing along a quasi-stationary/slow-moving warm front that arcs from northeast NE into far southeast MN and southwest WI. The eastern portion of this development appears to be primarily driven by modest low-level warm theta-e advection within an uncapped, moderately buoyant air mass. Convection farther west over the Mid-MO Valley is also being aided by a minor MCV in southeast SD. Area VWPs still indicate relatively stronger mid/upper flow is likely displaced along and to the cool side of the front, with weak flow into the warm-moist sector. A confined corridor of slow-moving, transient supercells and multicell clusters should develop near and just south of the front. Overall severe coverage will probably remain sporadic with mainly a lower-end wind/hail threat. Confidence is somewhat higher in intensification, including the potential for a couple tornadoes, in association with the MCV over the Mid-MO Valley. ..Grams/Hart.. 06/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...LBF... LAT...LON 44379225 43909048 43159028 42659136 42609154 42749384 42489615 42449837 42599907 43169904 43359876 43749576 44379225