886
ACUS11 KWNS 261948
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261947
IDZ000-NVZ000-ORZ000-262245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1428
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0247 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Areas affected...Southwestern Idaho

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 261947Z - 262245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms have developed over Southwestern
ID in an environment supportive of isolated damaging wind gusts,
marginally severe hail. Given overall uncertainty in convective
coverage and longevity, weather watch issuance is not expected at
this time.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue to
develop this afternoon across Southwestern ID, as an upper-level
shortwave trough over OR and WA continues to advance towards
southern British Columbia. Surface temperatures have warmed into the
upper 80s F, with dewpoints in the upper 50s F, resulting in MUCAPE
of 1000-1500 J/kg beneath 35-45 kts of deep layer vertical shear.
Additionally, a local maxima of 0-1 km SRH is evident near Boise on
both SPC Mesoanalysis and the Boise VAD wind profile, with values
between 100-140 m^2/s^2.

While the overall coverage and intensity of severe weather is
expected to remain marginal, storms in this environment will be
capable of isolated damaging wind gusts, and hail near 1-inch.

Given uncertainty in convective coverage and intensity, weather
watch issuance is not expected at this time, though convective
trends will continue to be monitored.

..Halbert/Weinman/Hart.. 06/26/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PIH...BOI...LKN...

LAT...LON   43601429 43071437 42711451 42211479 42001514 41901560
            41881620 41941667 42011690 42221706 42591725 42951730
            43261732 43721737 44191720 44521673 44641647 44861606
            44981568 44991537 44841500 44591477 44261448 43601429