252
ACUS11 KWNS 141945
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141944
NEZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-142045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1262
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0244 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Areas affected...The High Plains of Colorado...far northeastern
NM...far southeastern Wyoming...and the Nebraska panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 141944Z - 142045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms posing a risk of large hail,
damaging winds, and perhaps a landspout or two expected.

DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite and radar trends indicate
destabilization and ascent are increasing from the Raton Mesa
(preceding an outflow boundary) and northward along the front range
of CO. In addition, deeper, pooling moisture, indicative of
widespread cumulus across the northeastern CO High Plains is
beginning to show sings of increasing vertical development. As a mid
to upper shortwave trough continues to approach from the Four
Corners region, broader ascent/diffluence aloft, DCVA, and
increasing deep layer effective shear will overspread the region.
Diurnal heating will also result in increasing buoyancy ahead of
this feature, especially across CO where less cloud cover has been
present within the warm sector.

More cellular/discrete like thunderstorms this afternoon through
early this evening will have the opportunity to produce large hail
near 1-1.75" in diameter, and perhaps a landspout or two as
low-level lapse rates continue to steepen. Thereafter, merging
clusters and deepening cold pools will be capable of producing
damaging wind gusts near 65-80 mph within a more deeply mixed
boundary layer across the eastern High Plains. A WW will be needed
soon.

..Barnes/Gleason.. 06/14/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...

LAT...LON   42530469 42120506 41360505 40970521 39900551 39090554
            38480551 37470507 36150532 35750495 35920408 36240314
            37000233 37230214 38120200 40000202 40900213 41240259
            42210333 42480375 42530469