Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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971
ACUS11 KWNS 160234
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160234
IAZ000-MNZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-160400-
Mesoscale Discussion 1283
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0934 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024
Areas affected...Northwest MO into western/central IA and far
southern MN
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 421...
Valid 160234Z - 160400Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 421
continues.
SUMMARY...Some threat for isolated damaging wind may spread eastward
tonight.
DISCUSSION...The storm cluster that earlier produced a 52 kt wind
gust in Falls City, NE has since shown signs of weakening over
southwest IA, likely due to decreasing instability and increasing
MLCINH. Despite the weakening trend, this cluster has a relatively
well-established cold pool, and isolated damaging wind remains a
possibility as it moves eastward tonight.
Farther north, an earlier storm cluster across northeast NE has
weakened somewhat as the embedded supercell structures have
dissipated. However, a small MCV appears to have formed out of this
cluster, and the downstream environment into northwest IA remains
somewhat more unstable and less capped compared to farther south.
Some threat for damaging wind could spread across northwest IA and
far southern MN with time tonight, though the need for additional
watch issuance is uncertain and will depend on short-term convective
trends.
..Dean/Smith.. 06/16/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...
LAT...LON 39949536 41099474 42299600 43099568 43719496 43769433
43519353 42099336 41739336 41289328 40669370 40399386
39929465 39949536