Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 212327
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212327
MTZ000-220100-
Mesoscale Discussion 1368
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0627 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024
Areas affected...Western into central Montana
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 442...
Valid 212327Z - 220100Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 442
continues.
SUMMARY...The strongest convection will continue southeastward this
evening. Additional development may occur. Large hail and isolated
severe winds are the main hazards.
DISCUSSION...A few widely scattered supercells are moving slowly
southeastward into parts of central Montana. This motion is
generally expected to continue into the evening, as this is where
the moisture axis is situated. However, some early convection has
left some outflow (cooler/modestly drier) that is evident in surface
observations. It is unclear how this will impact the ongoing
strong/severe storms as they encounter this mesoscale environment.
Additional storms may develop within the terrain or perhaps along
the southern edge of the outflow. It also appears possible that a
storm or two could move southeastward out of Alberta. In general,
large hail (conditionally up to 2 inches with a mature supercell)
and isolated strong/severe gusts are the main threats into the
evening.
..Wendt.. 06/21/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...
LAT...LON 47651240 48211276 48861316 49011287 49011105 48460940
47990849 46790767 46150848 46141001 47161204 47651240