881
ACUS11 KWNS 261136
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261136
SCZ000-GAZ000-261330-

Mesoscale Discussion 2110
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0636 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Areas affected...Far Eastern Georgia...Southern and Central South
Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 261136Z - 261330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated tornado threat is expected to continue over
the several hours from far eastern Georgia into southern and central
South Carolina. Tornado watch issuance may become necessary.

DISCUSSION...Hurricane Helene continues to move northward across the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. Ahead of the system, onshore flow is present
across much of the southern Atlantic Seaboard. Low-level convergence
is maximized near the coast of Georgia and South Carolina where
isolated storms have been generating over the last hour. RAP
analysis shows weak instability near the coast, but also has an 850
mb speed max located over eastern Georgia with wind speeds in the 30
to 35 knot range. This is reflected on the Charleston, South
Carolina WSR-88D VWP, which has 0-6 km shear near 40 knots, and 0-3
km storm-relative helicity of near 170 m2/s2. This should be enough
for tornado development associated with short-topped supercells. The
tornado threat may spread northward into central South Carolina over
the next few hours.

..Broyles/Guyer.. 09/26/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...

LAT...LON   32128025 31348099 31108137 31168179 31498203 32248236
            33108239 33658218 33998190 34098139 33958065 33678006
            33217979 32657982 32128025