341
ACUS11 KWNS 290115
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290114
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-290245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1467
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0814 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Areas affected...parts of eastern Colorado...southwestern
Nebraska...and northwestern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 290114Z - 290245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Risk for damaging winds appears to be increasing from
parts of northeastern Colorado and far southwestern Nebraska, across
northwestern Kansas.  New WW issuance is being considered.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a supercell storm that has
developed over the past hour now moving across Dundy County
Nebraska.  Meanwhile, additional storm are initiating west and
northwest of KITR (Burlington, CO).  This convection is evolving in
a loosely analogous manner to that depicted by most recent runs of
the HRRR, which suggest upscale growth of the storms as they move
eastward into an increasingly unstable airmass with time.

With this region on the southern fringe of the belt of stronger
mid-level westerlies, relatively fast, east-southeastward
progression of the convection is expected.  Risk for gusty/damaging
winds will likely be enhanced by the deep mixed layer evident across
the area, where around 40-degree surface temperature/dewpoint
depression is indicated.  Assuming continued development/upscale
growth, damaging wind risk may warrant WW issuance.

..Goss/Smith.. 06/29/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   39390308 40180280 40500170 40199935 38909969 38450152
            38610307 39390308