Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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155 FXUS64 KMEG 241105 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 605 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 430 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Hot temperatures in the 90s combined with lingering humidity will result in afternoon heat index values rising to around 105 degrees across portions of the Mid-South, especially along and west of the Mississippi River into Tuesday. A cold front will bring an increased chance for showers and thunderstorms across the area on Wednesday followed by slightly cooler and drier air. A building upper level ridge will bring a return of very hot and humid conditions, and isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorms into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 430 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 GOES-16 Water Vapor satellite trends show a mid-level shortwave trough moving through portions of the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, latest surface analysis places a weak cold front stretching from New England into the Lower Mississippi Valley. KGWX WSR-88D radar trends indicate an isolated rain shower over Union county. Otherwise, the remainder of the Mid- South remains rain-free. Temperatures as of 4 AM CDT range from near 70 degrees along the Tennessee River, and mid 70s to around 80 degrees elsewhere. The aforementioned back door cold front is expected to wash out over the Mid-South today. Dewpoints north of the boundary are expected to drop back into the middle to upper 60s by this afternoon with areas generally along and west of the Mississippi River not dropping as much. 925 mb temperatures rising to 27C should translate to afternoon highs in the middle to upper 90s. These very hot temperatures combined with lingering low level moisture should result in afternoon heat index values around 105 degrees especially along and west/southwest of the Memphis metro area. Surface dewpoints are expected to rebound on Tuesday as 925 mb temperatures approach 28C with afternoon highs approaching 100 degrees in a few spots. As a result, the existing Heat Advisory was extended until 8 PM Tuesday, and issued a new Heat Advisory covering the remaining counties along the Mississippi River. Additional expansion of the heat headlines will be considered for Tuesday if conditions warrant. Short-term models indicate mid-level heights will weaken Tuesday night into Wednesday as the upper-level high retrogrades to the southwest U.S. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase late Tuesday night into Wednesday as a mid-level trough and associated cold front drop into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. A potential exists for a Mesoscale Convective System to develop upstream and attempt to drop into the Mid-South on Wednesday. At the same time, the best upper-level forcing is expected to move east into the Ohio Valley. LREF Grand Ensemble output indicates the potential for surface-based CAPE values up to 2500 J/kg, with overall shear remaining around 20 kts. As a result, current thinking is that any upstream convection would be in a weakening phase given the minimal shear across the area. A potential would exist for redevelopment during peak heating along residual outflow boundaries. Damaging winds will be main threat if any thunderstorms can become severe. Slightly cooler and drier air will filter in for late week with rain chances remaining minimal at best. The upper-level ridge is expected to build east into next weekend resulting in a return of increasing heat and humidity and the potential for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly during peak heating. CJC && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 605 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Winds will be light this morning as a weak cold front is just north of MEM. High pressure will settle in late tonight resulting in clear skies and light winds. BR conds possible again tomorrow night. DNM && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ009-018-026-027-035-036-048-049-058. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ028. MO...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ113-115. MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ001-007-008-010>013-020>024. TN...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TNZ088. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TNZ001-002-019- 048-049. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...DNM