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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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353 FXUS64 KMEG 291124 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 624 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 323 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Excessive heat will continue to plague the Mid-South today with much of the area seeing afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 90s. Fortunately, relief from the heat is anticipated on Sunday and Monday as a cold front sags into the region. Temperatures will rebound to the mid 90s on Tuesday and last through midweek before additional rain chances return late Thursday into Friday. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Friday) Issued at 323 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Hot and muggy conditions will persist today as a 598 dam ridge remains parked over the ArkLaTex. Expect dewpoints to climb to the mid and upper 70s by midday, resulting in heat index values greater than 105F areawide. A Heat Advisory and Excessive Heat Warning will go into effect at 11AM for the entire Mid-South, with areas along and west of the Mississippi River included in the Excessive Heat Warning. The good news: cooler temperatures are on the way as a cold front sags across Missouri today. Ahead of this front, showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop over central Missouri and push into the Mid-South this evening. Overall, severe weather chances at this time look relatively low due to timing of storms corresponding with a developing nocturnal inversion. A brief one or two hour window of severe storms capable of damaging winds may materialize around sunset, but expect storms to dissipate as they approach the I-40 corridor. Additional showers and thunderstorms may develop Sunday afternoon as the aforementioned front pushes into north Mississippi. A warm and dry spell will resume Monday with additional heat headlines likely by Tuesday as temperatures rise to the mid and upper 90s. The next best chance of rain looks to be late Thursday into Friday as a shortwave trough impacts the Mid-South. Greater rain chances are forecast for Friday, so hopefully things stay dry for the 4th of July Holiday. Stay tuned. ANS && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Predominately VFR conditions continue for all TAF sites. Biggest question will be SHRA/TSRA chances with a frontal boundary overnight. Still a lot of uncertainty, so have only included mention for JBR for this TAF cycle, but may be needed for MKL/MEM in a later forecast. Winds will remain generally from the S/SW throughout the TAF period, becoming N near the end of the current TAF period. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058. MO...Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115. MS...Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ001-007-008-010>012-020. Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ002>006-009-013>017-021>024. TN...Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ001-002-019-020-048>051-088-089. Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ003-004-021-022-052>055-090>092. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS AVIATION...CMA