Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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073 FXUS64 KMEG 212356 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 656 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 308 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 High pressure will continue to dominate the forecast through much of the weekend, with highs well into the 90s through at least next Tuesday. Heat Advisories will likely be needed as early as Sunday. Conditions will remain dry until Sunday, with some isolated showers Sunday to Tuesday and higher PoPs returning Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 308 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 We officially reached summer yesterday and we sure are feeling it today. Scattered clouds are apparent on the latest visible satellite imagery with latest obs showing temps generally at to just above 90 degrees across the Mid-South. Unfortunately little relief from this heat is expected into early next week and will likely only get worse with the region remaining under the influence of high pressure. Surface winds will begin to become generally southerly overnight, allowing some additional moisture to enter the area and leading to dew point temps slow climbing each day. By Sunday, highs will reach the mid 90s across much of the Mid-South with some locations across northern Mississippi peaking into the upper 90s. Couple this with dew point temperatures in the 70s and we will see many locations reach Heat Index values near the 105 mark. If this pans out, a Heat Advisory could be needed for at least some portions of the Mid-South. Upper- level pattern will begin to shift on Sunday, with a building ridge across the Rocky Mountains. While this will not bring immediate relief to the area, it will allow a weak shortwave to move through Sunday Night. There will be some instability in the evening, but shear appears to be pretty weak and less than ideal mid-level lapse rates per the latest forecast soundings. If this boundary can get enough lift, could see some thunderstorms in the mix with a strong storm or two, but it looks pretty unimpressive as CAMs stand now and storms will likely struggle to sustain themselves given the environment. Will continue to carry isolated PoPs Monday and Tuesday, but the biggest talking point both days will be the continued heat. Many locations will likely reach the mid to upper 90s both days, with dew point temps remaining in the 70s. If a Heat Advisory is not needed Sunday, things do look more probable for Monday/Tuesday if things continue to look the way they do now. We appear to finally break out of the heat at least for a little while on Wednesday as upper-level troughing builds over the eastern half of the U.S and a frontal boundary moves through Wednesday Evening. Temperatures will fall back to near normal on Wednesday, likely remaining there through the beginning of next weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 649 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period, as weak surface high pressure remains over the Mid-South. Winds will be light and variable overnight and begin to shift to the SSW by tomorrow afternoon. ACH/AC3 && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA AVIATION...AC3/ACH