Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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606 FXUS64 KMEG 210933 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 433 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 430 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 A ridge of high pressure will bring mainly rain free weather to the Mid-South through Saturday night with temperatures rising into the middle to upper 90s over the weekend. These very hot temperatures combined with a humid airmass may result in heat index values reaching or exceeding 105 degrees in some locations Sunday through Tuesday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase by early next week. A cold front will bring the best chance for showers and thunderstorms across the region by Wednesday, with slightly cooler temperatures for late next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 430 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 GOES-16 satellite trends show an upper-level ridge centered over Middle Tennessee while a deep upper-level trough extends along the West Coast of the U.S. early this morning. This is resulting in warm, humid, and rain free conditions across the Mid-South with temperatures in the lower 70s as of 4 AM CDT. The aforementioned upper-level ridge will continue to retrograde west to the Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. 925 mb temperatures increasing to around 26C should translate to afternoon highs in the middle to perhaps upper 90s across the Mid-South. Rain chances are expected to remain low at best during this period with the presence of a capping inversion between 800-700 mb. Short-term models indicate the potential for dewpoints to pool especially along and north of I-40 on Sunday with a back door cold front dropping into the Tennessee Valley Sunday night into Monday. Forecast dewpoints were adjusted to a 50/50 blend of the NBM and NBM 90th percentile to reflect short-term trends. These high dewpoints combined with temperatures in the middle to upper 90s in some locations may result in heat index values rising to or above 105 degrees. Heat Advisories may become necessary between Sunday to next Tuesday across portions of the Mid-South. Isolated to perhaps scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to be mostly confined to areas near the Kentucky border and along the Tennessee River Sunday into Sunday night. Very weak shear combined with surface-based CAPE values may result in a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms mainly during peak heating Sunday afternoon and evening. Long-term operational and ensemble model trends still show the upper-level ridge retrograding to the Southwest U.S. into late next week placing the Lower Mississippi Valley under northwest flow aloft. Consequently, showers and thunderstorms will increase by early next week. The best chance for measurable rain will be on Wednesday as a cold front moves through the area. This will bring a temporary break from the very hot temperatures for late next week. CJC && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1126 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 High pressure continues to build in from the east resulting in light easterly winds. BR conditions may develop at MKL near sunrise under clear skies and calm winds. Cirrus/fair weather clouds will continue to clear out before return flow settles in. DNM && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...DNM