Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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577 FXUS64 KMEG 201716 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1216 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 355 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 A ridge of high pressure will build across the region into the upcoming weekend. This will result in mainly rain-free conditions across a majority of the Mid-South. Highs this afternoon will be in the lower 90s with temperatures rising into the middle to upper 90s by this weekend. Increasing low-level moisture combined with the hot temperatures may produce heat index values around 105 degrees late this weekend into early next week. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase early next week as the upper- level ridge retrogrades to the southwest U.S. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 355 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 GOES-16 Water Vapor satellite trends and last evening`s 00Z upper air analysis places an upper-level ridge over the Mid-Atlantic states while an longwave upper-level trough axis extends over the Western U.S. along the Pacific Coast. Mid to high level moisture associated with Tropical Storm Alberto is producing some cloud cover across the Lower Mississippi Valley early this morning. Warm and humid conditions persist across the Mid-South with temperatures as of 3 AM CDT in the upper 60s to middle 70s with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Short-term models continue to show the aforementioned upper-level ridge retrograding west across the Lower Mississippi Valley into the upcoming weekend. Model soundings indicate the potential for perhaps an isolated thunderstorm or two across portions of West Tennessee near the Tennessee River Friday afternoon into early Friday evening during peak heating. However, confidence in coverage remains low and kept rain chances near 10 percent. Otherwise, mainly rain-free conditions should persist through the period with temperatures rising into the middle to upper 90s Friday through Sunday. NAEFS still indicate 850 mb temperatures rising to around 20C. (1-2 standard deviations above normal for late June) Long-term operational and ensemble models indicate the aforementioned upper-level ridge will retrograde further west to the Southwest U.S. by next week placing the Lower Mississippi Valley on the eastern periphery of the ridge axis. A combination of weak northwest flow aloft with a nearby weak back door cold front will result in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms especially during peak heating beginning Sunday night into next week. Heat headlines may become necessary by Sunday afternoon or Monday as very hot temperatures combine with a humid airmass to produce heat index values around 105 degrees at some locations. CJC && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the current TAF period. Some variabilities in wind direction, generally between E/SE around or below 7 kts. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...CMA