Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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992 FXUS64 KMEG 190818 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 318 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 317 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 A building ridge of high pressure will bring very hot temperatures to the Mid-South for the remainder of the week into the upcoming weekend. Afternoon highs are expected to be in the 90s with middle to upper 90s possible towards the weekend. A weak back door cold front may bring some temporary relief with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms for late weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 317 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 00Z upper air analysis and GOES-16 Water Vapor satellite trends show a 597 dm upper-level ridge centered over the Mid-Atlantic states with a longwave upper-level trough located over the western United States. A plume of tropical moisture continues to advect up into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valleys in between these two synoptic features. A warm and humid airmass remains in place across the Mid-South this morning with temperatures in the 70s and surface dewpoints in the lower 70s. The aforementioned upper-level ridge axis will continue to build across the region today and into the upcoming weekend. An isolated rain shower is possible west of the Mississippi River this morning but confidence remains too low to mention any pops at this time as low to mid-level dry air filters into the area. Temperatures should warm into the upper 80s to around 90 degrees today despite some high clouds being present. Rain chances will remain minimal at best into the upcoming weekend with very warm mid-level temperatures and the presence of a capping inversion. NAEFS mean temperatures will average between 1-2 standard deviations above normal during this period. Afternoon highs will be mostly in the lower to middle 90s with nightly lows in the 70s. Long-term operational and ensemble models indicate a weak back door cold front may drop into portions of the Lower Mississippi Sunday into Sunday night. Pooling low-level moisture combined with the very hot temperatures in the middle to perhaps upper 90s may result in afternoon heat index values approaching Heat Advisory criteria around 105 degrees across portions of the area on Sunday. This front may also bring the potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorms along with slightly lower temperatures. Temperatures are expected to increase back into the upper 90s by early next week as an upper-level ridge over the Southern Plains builds east into the Lower Mississippi Valley. CJC && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1134 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 The western lobe of an upper level ridge centered over the mid- Atlantic seaboard will spread into the Midsouth through the next 30 hours. This will limit SHRA/TSRA chances and bring light easterly surface winds for the MEM nighttime arrival/departure pushes. PWB && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...PWB