684
FXUS64 KMEG 151929
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
229 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Showers will continue across portions of the Mid-South through
Monday, slowly exiting the area from northeast to southwest. Dry
conditions will prevail Tuesday through at least Friday. High
temperatures will begin to increase tomorrow before reaching the
mid 80s by Tuesday and remaining there through the remainder of
the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Funnel of moisture continues across the Mid-South with a SE to NW
axis of precipitation currently depicted on radar. There have been
a few, heavier pockets of rain so far today, but haven`t seen any
significant issues as a result luckily. Some pockets of surface
instability do exist, however, thunderstorm activity has been
confined to north of the area and will likely remain that way
through tonight and tomorrow. Moisture axis will slowly begin to
shift southward beginning overnight through tomorrow, with rain
exiting the area finally by tomorrow evening. An additional inch
of rain is expected generally over north MS, with amounts closer
to a few tenths for locations near the TN River, and somewhere
unbeaten elsewhere. The one noticeable difference tomorrow will be
our temperatures, with temps climbing back into the 80s for much
of the area. Skies will begin to clear from NE to SW, so some
locations north of I-40 in west TN could climb to the mid 80s.

Weak upper-level ridge will develop across the ArkLaTex region by
Tuesday, slowly drifting towards the Mid-South near the end of the
week. This will finally usher out the remnant tropical moisture
and bring back a warmer and drier weather pattern to the area.
Highs will generally be in the 80s with overnight lows in the 60s,
which is near normal for the area this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Slight CIG improvement may occur later this afternoon as the
current axis of precipitation shifts west. A few hours of VFR CIGs
may occur before another round of IFR returns overnight. Continued
SHRA will finally end Monday morning, allowing all sites to be
dry by the end of the period. Otherwise, winds will remain out of
the east at 10-12 kts.

ANS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...ANS