296
FXUS64 KMEG 211715
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1215 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 430 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Dry conditions and above normal temperatures will persist through
this weekend as high pressure remains in place. A pattern change
will occur early next week as a cold front moves through the
region. Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible. Dry and much
cooler conditions will move into the Mid-South by the middle of
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 430 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

A mostly quiet night across the Mid-South at this hour. The latest
KNQA radar sweep reveals pockets of isolated showers near the I-40
corridor with mainly dry conditions across the rest of the Mid-
South. Temperatures are mainly in the low to mid 70s with partly
cloudy skies. The latest GOES East Water Vapor Imagery reveals a
large ridge of high pressure centered over Texas with a weakening
MCS riding the ridge over southern Missouri and a new MCS building
behind it near Kansas City.

Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible through early
afternoon as the remnants of the aforementioned MCSs move into the
region. Coverage will remain between 20 and 30 PoPs and mainly
north of I-40. Despite morning clouds and showers, temperatures
will still be quite warm this afternoon with readings in the upper
80s to middle 90s. Dry weather will persist on Sunday as the
ridge of high pressure builds east into the Mid-South.

The pattern will change on Monday as the aforementioned ridge
flattens out and a cold front and upper level shortwave move into
the region. Showers and scattered thunderstorms will begin as
early as Monday morning and persist into Tuesday as a shortwave
ejects. A limited threat of strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible mainly Monday afternoon and evening.

Models struggle to resolve the upper level pattern Wednesday
through next weekend. With marked differences in key synoptic
features, decided to stick with the NBM through the mid and long
range forecast. Expect cooler than normal temperatures and low
chances for rain.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

VFR. Patchy fog is expected overnight at MKL. TUP could also see
some patchy fog over this same period, though confidence was not
high enough to include in TAF. VCTS will continue at JBR through
the afternoon as a decaying MCS continues moving over NE AR/the MO
Bootheel. Convection may impact MEM later this afternoon, though
confidence was not high enough to prevail in TAF. Predominately
south/southwest winds sub 10 kts will remain across all terminals.

AEH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...AEH