Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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251 FXUS64 KMEG 180914 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 414 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 A warm and humid airmass in place across the Mid-South will result in the potential for isolated to scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm today, especially northwest of I-40. Rain chances will diminish tonight into the upcoming weekend as a strong upper-level ridge builds over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Afternoon temperatures are expected to rise into the middle to upper 90s by Friday. Shower and thunderstorm chances are anticipated to increase for late weekend into early next week as a backdoor cold front drops into the region. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Monday) Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 GOES-16 Water Vapor satellite trends center an upper-level ridge over the Carolinas with a longwave trough axis extending from Saskatchewan/Manitoba back through the Western U.S. A plume of low level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico continues to advect up into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Regional WSR-88D radar trends show a few rain showers beginning to develop across north Mississippi early this morning. Otherwise, relatively rain free conditions prevail across much of the area at this moment. Temperatures remain warm in the lower 70s areawide as of 3 AM CDT. Short-term model trends indicate the Mid-South will remain on the western periphery of an upper-level ridge axis today. Isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two will be possible during the day mostly northwest of I-40. Precipitable water values in this corridor around the 90th percentile for June may result in the potential for localized heavy rainfall. Model soundings indicate low to mid-level dry air over Alabama will begin to filter into the remainder of the area throughout the day, resulting in less convective coverage than Monday. The aforementioned upper-level ridge axis will begin to retrograde west and strengthen for Wednesday through Saturday, resulting in mainly rain free conditions and a return of hot temperatures. NAEFS indicates 500/200 mb heights will be 2-3 standard deviations above normal with afternoon temperatures approaching the middle to upper 90s for late week into the start of the upcoming weekend. Long-term model trends show a potential for increased rain chances for late weekend into early next week as another back door cold front tries to drop into the Lower Mississippi Valley. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1148 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 No significant impacts expected overnight. 00Z HRRR and GFS show a small signal for SHRA after 12Z. Thunder potential remains limited, assuming convection does not persist beyond 18Z. 00Z global models are depicting relatively strong mid level subsidence and drying, overspread by a relatively dense cirrus. This should limit TS potential during the afternoon. PWB && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...PWB