409
FXUS64 KMEG 240207
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
907 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 907 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Isolated showers and thunderstorms continue to impact the Mid-
South as of 9PM. Luckily, the severe weather threat never
materialized this evening due to lack luster lapse rates and a
small capping inversion. A few rumbles of thunder will be possible
overnight before a secondary round of showers and storms develops
along a cold front midday Tuesday. A Marginal Risk for severe
storms remains in place for areas near the Tennessee River on
Tuesday. However, the latest 00Z guidance suggests that the most
conducive environment for severe storms will remain over middle
Tennessee and northern Alabama, limiting local impacts. Otherwise,
the remainder of the forecast is on track and does not need
additional updates.

ANS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 243 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

This week is expected to start off warm and rainy, with highs in
the 80s and 90s alongside scattered thunderstorms. A cold front
will move through the region Monday night through Tuesday,
bringing high temperatures into the upper 70s and afternoon
thunderstorms in the portions of northeast Mississippi and the
Tennessee river valley. Highs are expected to remain in the 70s
through the rest of the week with steadily increasing rain chances
through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

A positively tilted trough is currently progressing across the
CONUS and into our region. A surface cold front is currently
draped N/S across TX through AR into MO with a weak surface low
analyzed in C MO. As the day progresses, these features will
slowly move east with attendant showers and thunderstorms. Some
sunshine today has allowed for at least marginal destabilization,
as evident with several convective showers developing throughout
the CWA. No significant impacts are expected with only small hail
and damaging winds being the primary impacts through this
evening.

Tomorrow will see the passage of the surface cold front, which
will make its way into E MS by 00z Wed. More chances for
thunderstorms are possible, but impacts will once again only be
up to marginally severe for hail and damaging winds.

From this point, a new shortwave dives south out of the northern
stream and phases with today`s wave. The result is an amplifying
cutoff low that is likely to remain over the Central CONUS for the
foreseeable future, bringing more unsettled weather. The only
complicating factor in this forecast is the expected arrival of
what is anticipated to be Helene on Thursday. As a result more
rain is in the forecast. The current QPF forecast displays 2-3"
between now and Saturday with more being entirely possible based
on Helene`s trajectory. However, specific details are difficult to
nail down at this range and will likely change in the coming
days.

Late into the forecast period has a reasonable amount forecast
confidence in terms of expected conditions. Given the presence of
a distinct cutoff low and the addition of a post tropical system,
dreary and wet conditions will likely prevail through the rest of
the period. However, as previously mentioned, forecast spread on
specific rainfall amounts and impacts are yet to be determined and
will likely be amended as we continue through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

A cold front will push through TAF sites later tonight. TS
possible at JBR this evening with confidence in coverage
decreasing through the night. HREF ensemble guidance indicates a
good probability for MVFR ceilings at or below 2kft at all sites
except TUP towards Tuesday morning. Conditions expected to
improve towards late morning. Light winds will increase to W winds
between 7-10 kts on Tuesday.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...CJC