770
FXUS64 KMEG 240125
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
825 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 817 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Skies are partly cloudy across the Mid-South this evening with
temperatures in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees. Heat index
values have dropped below 105 so have cancelled the Heat Advisory
for tonight. A Heat Advisory is in effect for the western half of
the Mid-South from 11 AM until 9 PM on Monday. A few isolated
showers and thunderstorms are over portions of northwest Tennessee
and northeast Mississippi. Some additional showers or thunderstorms
may develop tonight. Have updated forecast to remove Heat Advisory
for tonight. If all the activity dies out later this evening, may
need to remove PoPs for the remainder of tonight.

ARS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

A series of cold fronts will move through the Mid-South over the
next seven days. The fronts will bring chances for showers and
thunderstorms and brief respites from the heat and humidity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

A weak cold front has pushed into the Missouri Bootheel and
Northeast Arkansas this afternoon. A few showers have developed
ahead of the front. Expect additional development of showers and
thunderstorms to occur for the remainder of the afternoon into
the evening as the front interacts with peak heating. Can`t rule
out an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm occurring late this
afternoon into the evening hours.

The front will push south of the CWA overnight. Drier air will
begin to filter into much of West Tennessee and Northeast
Mississippi as surface high pressure builds over the Ohio Valley.
Temperatures will remain warm on Monday but with the lower
humidity heat index values will not reach advisory conditions.
However, this won`t be the case across Eastern Arkansas, Memphis,
and Northwest Mississippi stretching southeastward to Monroe
County. The location of the washed out front just to the southwest
will keep dewpoints higher in this region. The combination of high
temperatures in the upper 90s and the higher humidity will once
again produce heat indices in the 105-110 degrees Monday afternoon
into Monday evening. A new heat advisory has been issued.

By Tuesday, the surface high will shift east allowing for
southwesterly flow to occur across the entire Mid-South. This will
spread the higher dewpoints back across the entire region. With
highs expected once again in the upper 90s to possibly 100
degrees, a heat advisory will likely need to be issued for the
entire area.

Relief will come late Tuesday Night into Wednesday as a cold front
moves southward from the Mid-West. A few models are show a dying
MCS moving into Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and
Northwest Tennessee during the morning hours. Redevelopment of
thunderstorms would likely occur by the afternoon hours on
Wednesday in the vicinity of old outflow boundaries and the front.
Regardless, the temperature forecast will be tricky due to
convection and cloud cover. Would not be shocked if heat
advisories would still be needed for parts of North Mississippi on
Wednesday.

Drier air will then once again filter into the region Wednesday
Night into Thursday as surface high pressure builds over the Ohio
Valley. Expect lower humidity with warm days and cool nights.

The heat and humidity will return again for the end of the week
into next weekend as the surface high moves east on Friday.
Another cold front will move into the region on Saturday. This
front may have the potential to stall out due to the upper ridge
building across Central Mississippi. Expect chances for showers
and thunderstorms to occur across the period.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

VFR through the period. A few lingering SHRAs late tonight near
MEM and TUP as the front sags south. Confidence is low on timing
and coverage, but enough to warrant a VCSH at each site. Winds
will shift around the the east behind the front overnight.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Monday for ARZ009-018-026-
     027-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...None.
MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Monday for MSZ001-007-008-
     010>013-020>024.

TN...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Monday for TNZ088.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...KRM
AVIATION...AC3