395
FXUS64 KMEG 160154
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
854 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 826 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Another wet night across the Midsouth. Rain should be most
widespread along and west of the Mississippi River for the next
several hours, but a weak shortwave and surface trough will shift
into Middle Tennessee and Alabama toward sunrise and likely result
in additional development in west Tennessee and north Mississippi.
We should see more significant clearing tomorrow evening area wide
as a persistent upper level low sinks south into southeast
Arkansas. Dry conditions are expected on Tuesday and through the
remainder of the work week. Temperatures will trend warmer but
should remain below the 90 degree mark.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Showers will continue across portions of the Mid-South through
Monday, slowly exiting the area from northeast to southwest. Dry
conditions will prevail Tuesday through at least Friday. High
temperatures will begin to increase tomorrow before reaching the
mid 80s by Tuesday and remaining there through the remainder of
the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Funnel of moisture continues across the Mid-South with a SE to NW
axis of precipitation currently depicted on radar. There have been
a few, heavier pockets of rain so far today, but haven`t seen any
significant issues as a result luckily. Some pockets of surface
instability do exist, however, thunderstorm activity has been
confined to north of the area and will likely remain that way
through tonight and tomorrow. Moisture axis will slowly begin to
shift southward beginning overnight through tomorrow, with rain
exiting the area finally by tomorrow evening. An additional inch
of rain is expected generally over north MS, with amounts closer
to a few tenths for locations near the TN River, and somewhere
unbeaten elsewhere. The one noticeable difference tomorrow will be
our temperatures, with temps climbing back into the 80s for much
of the area. Skies will begin to clear from NE to SW, so some
locations north of I-40 in west TN could climb to the mid 80s.

Weak upper-level ridge will develop across the ArkLaTex region by
Tuesday, slowly drifting towards the Mid-South near the end of the
week. This will finally usher out the remnant tropical moisture
and bring back a warmer and drier weather pattern to the area.
Highs will generally be in the 80s with overnight lows in the 60s,
which is near normal for the area this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

An upper low will continue to churn over the Mid-South bringing
IFR conditions to MEM and MVFR conditions to JBR/MKL through
around sunrise. -SHRA/BR will also impact all terminals through
this same period. VFR conditions will slowly begin to filter into
the airspace as shower development exits the Mid-South. Northeast
winds at around 6-12 kts will remain through the TAF period.

AEH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...AEH