976
FXUS64 KMEG 151135 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
635 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will continue across the
area today. Dry conditions will finally return to northwest
Tennessee late tonight and area wide by Tuesday morning. Sunny
skies and dry weather will persist through early next week with
normal temperatures expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Rainy conditions will continue today across the Mid-South as a
remnant low, that was once Tropical System Francine, churns over
north Mississippi. Most prominent at 925 mb, but extending to
700mb, a moisture field moving from southeast to northwest keeps
rain bands training across the area.

As the low slowly sinks south, the aforementioned moisture field
will sink south as well allowing the rain bands to soak drought
stricken north Mississippi. There is very low probabilities for
thunder (~40% or less) with the shower activity today.
Thunderstorms would be most likely across north Mississippi,
particularly the Delta region. Thunder chances would increase if
there are any cloud breaks allowing surface based instability to
increase with daytime heating. With these bands, QPF for areas
south of I-40 is 0.5-1.5". Areas to the north of I-40 will see an
inch or less through tomorrow morning with the highest amounts
being in northeast Arkansas.

Impacts from the remnant low will finally end for northwest
Tennessee near midnight tonight. The entire Mid-South should
finally dry out by Monday evening. Monday night into Tuesday
morning, fog development is possible particularly over northwest
Tennessee under clearing skies, light winds, and a saturated
surface. On Tuesday, the sun will shine with near climatological
temperatures (in the mid to upper 80s) for September to return as
high pressure builds. As a synoptic blocking pattern sets up, this
pattern will continue through next weekend.

DNM

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

The steady inflow of tropical moisture just off the surface and
an inverted surface pressure trough will result in continued
-DZ/-SHRA today. This will counteract the tendency for CIGs to
diurnally improve.

12Z TAFs stayed relatively close to GFS LAMP/NBM guidance, which
depicts persistence through tonight.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...PWB