747
FXUS64 KMEG 141933
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
233 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Scattered thunderstorms will remain in the forecast across the
Mid-South through Monday. Some areas could see an additional 1 to
2 inches of rainfall between now and Monday evening. By Tuesday,
drier and slightly warmer conditions are expected through the
remainder of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Very little changes from the previous forecast as our soggy
weather pattern will remain across the Mid-South through Monday
thanks to the remnants of Francine. Surface low has drifted over
north MS through the day, bringing additional showers across the
region. Very little movement is expected from this low pressure
over the next 48 hours, keeping a dreary weather pattern across
the Mid-South. I have knocked the thunderstorm potential back a
bit based on observations through the day. While there is some
surface instability, showers have struggled to tap into this
potential and there hasn`t been any lightning activity across the
area today. I won`t rule out thunderstorms completely, but my
confidence is very, very low for any organized thunderstorm
activity through the remainder of today and into tomorrow. Flood
Watch continues for portions of the Mid-South along the TN River,
but this remains highly conditional. Heaviest rainfall has
luckily stayed to the east of the area, but will keep things
status quo in case a convective band sets up through the afternoon
to evening. Total additional rainfall amounts will likely be
around 1 to 2 inches across the area. Amounts closer to 2 inches
are more likely across north MS, with the potential for <1 inch
elsewhere.

Weak upper-level ridge will begin to develop across the
south-central plains on Tuesday, slowly shifting across the region
by the end of the work week. This will bring a drier and somewhat
warmer pattern back to the Mid-South, likely lasting into next
weekend. High temperatures will generally remain in the 80s with
overnight lows in the 60s, which is near normal for the area for
mid-September.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

MVFR and IFR CIGs will prevail through the period as the remnants
of Francine remain parked over the Mid-South. Overnight, expect
a widespread IFR deck to develop, impacting TUP and MEM. In
addition, a low level jet will stretch from west Tennessee into
northern Alabama. Confidence for impacts are greater this period,
so added WS to MKL TAF. Greater rain chances return this
afternoon, lasting through Sunday morning. Overall, thunder
probabilities remain low with this activity so opted against TS
mention at this time. Otherwise, east winds will be relatively
steady at 9 - 11kts.

ANS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MSZ004>006-009-014>017-
     023-024.

TN...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for TNZ091-092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...ANS