688
FXUS64 KMEG 051714
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1214 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1024 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

A MCV over Arkansas will push into the Mid-South this afternoon.
The airmass will be moist and somewhat unstable with PWs over 1.5
inches and SBCAPES of 1000-1500 J/kg. However, wind shear is weak
with 0-6km bulk shear values of less than 25 kts. Organized
severe weather is unlikely. Expect scattered to numerous SHRAs and
TSRAs to develop as surface heating continues. Brief locally
heavy downpours are possible.

Updated the forecast trim short term pops a bit due to recent
trends.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

One more day of showers and thunderstorms before the active
weather pattern ends late tonight. Dry conditions return Thursday
and less humid conditions return by Friday. The drier and cooler
conditions will be interrupted Saturday as shower chances increase
ahead of a cold frontal passage on Sunday. Dry conditions look to return
by Monday evening with below normal temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

A shortwave trough is located almost parallel to the Tennessee
River Valley as of 2 AM. A few showers are pushing into middle
Tennessee as a result of this trough. Water vapor imagery depicts a
shortwave ridge over east-central Arkansas ahead of an MCS in
southern Oklahoma. This shortwave ridging should stabilize the
Mid-South and any convective activity that reaches the region
should remain sub-severe. Some thunderstorms may have some gusty
winds and small hail associated with them this morning and
afternoon. PWs are elevated again today at or above the the
percentile (1.75-2.00"), flooding remains an area of concern
today.

The MCS will track southeast and an associated cold front will
cross the area this evening. Behind the front, much drier air will
begin to settle by Thursday morning. Clear skies and less humid
conditions are on tap for Thursday with highs in the upper 80s and
low 90s. Temperatures will cool slightly as Canadian high
pressure builds in. Temperatures will hang slightly below or near
normal conditions until Saturday.

Shower and thunderstorm chances returns Saturday morning as a low
pressure system ejects from the Plains. This system aims to track
northeast towards the Great Lakes region and stretch a cold front
across the Mid-South by Sunday. As the cold front approaches, a
surge of moisture will return and dewpoints will creep back into
the 70s on Sunday. Dry conditions look to return by Monday evening
with below normal temperatures forecast through the middle of next
week.

DNM

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Current area of MVFR ceilings over southwest portions of the Mid-
South should end in the next couple of hours. Scattered
thunderstorms are possible this afternoon as MCV moves through the
region with low confidence regarding any specific location seeing
a thunderstorm. Any thunderstorm activity that does develop should
be done this evening. Winds will be from the south at 10 to 15
knots with some higher gusts this afternoon before shifting to the
northwest around 5 knots by late tonight.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...ARS