Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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065 FXUS64 KMEG 121551 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1051 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1050 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Another warm, dry day is on tap for the Mid-South as high pressure remains over the area. A thin cirrus deck will continue to slide east with clear skies following behind it. As winds go calm tonight under clear skies, areas along the Tennessee River as well as low lying areas could see fog development overnight. Today`s highs will be in the mid 80s with temperatures increasing each day and continuing through the weekend as mid-level ridging builds in and dewpoints increase. The current forecast package is on track. AEH && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 230 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Dry and progressively warmer conditions are expected daily through the weekend. Saturday and Sunday may see triple digit heat indices. Rain chances return and temperatures come back down early next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 230 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 A broad 1016 mb surface high extends from the ArkLaTex up through the southern Appalachians per the latest 06Z surface analysis. This surface ridging will remain in place over the Mid-South for the next several days, allowing temperatures to climb progressively higher through the weekend. Most areas should reach 90 degrees by tomorrow afternoon. This weekend is where we`ll really start to heat up for the first time this year as a strong midlevel ridge sets up over the southeastern CONUS. NBM deterministic high temperatures for Saturday and Sunday came in seemingly way too hot near 100 degrees; the realm of all other pieces of guidance sat more in the mid 90s. Cross checking with the NBM probabilistic data, temperatures were brought down a few degrees this weekend to account for the NBM being an extreme outlier. There were only a few areas with low probabilities (less than 40%) of temperatures > 100 degrees on Sunday afternoon, which further nudged confidence enough to undercut highs a bit, especially on Sunday. It will certainly be hot this weekend, but most likely not pushing 100 degrees. Similarly, heat indices will likely reach triple digits Saturday and Sunday, but it`s not looking like heat headlines will be necessary. The midlevel ridge looks to amplify even further as it shifts over to the Eastern Seaboard early next week. This will allow Gulf moisture to be funneled up the Lower MS River Valley as southerly flow returns with a vengeance on the western fringe of the strong ridge. Guidance has trended a bit drier for the Mid-South with the last few model runs, keeping the precipitation axis confined to the central Gulf Coast. Regardless, rain chances will be on the rise as early as Monday afternoon (20-30%), continuing daily through mid next week. Even if we don`t see much precipitation, moisture will be plentiful. Dewpoints and resultant heat indices will also begin their gradual climb back into uncomfortably hot and humid territory by the middle of next week. CAD && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 620 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 VFR with some light fog possible late in the period at MKL and TUP. Light winds. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD AVIATION...SJM