342
FXUS64 KMEG 011643
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1143 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1135 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

The latest surface analysis places a 1013mb surface low over
northeast Missouri with a weak and nearly stationary front
extending SSE into west Tennessee and north Mississippi. Aloft, a
shortwave trough axis is analyzed near St. Louis and into SE MO.
The aforementioned trough will continue to slowly drift eastward
throughout the day. This will keep the axis of scattered showers
and thunderstorms confined mainly to areas near the Tennessee
River. With heavy cloud cover over that region, instability will
be low enough to preclude any deep moist convection. The main
threat will continue to be heavy rainfall and possibly some gusty
winds. After the trough exits the region tonight, main rainfree
and humid conditions look to persist across the much of the area
on Sunday.

The current forecast is on track with no big changes needed at
this time. High temperatures will peak in the upper 70s to lower
80s this afternoon.

AC3

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 435 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Following widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms early this
morning, additional showers and thunderstorms will redevelop
later today, mainly east of the Mississippi River. Rainfall coverage
should be considerably less than on Friday.

Warm and humid conditions will continue through the middle of next
week, which will support additional showers and thunderstorms. A
cold front will pass through the Midsouth Wednesday night into
Thursday, bringing showers and thunderstorms, followed by lower
humidity and drier conditions late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 435 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms were lifting through
the Midsouth at discussion time. This convection was rooted in an
elevated layer, in advance of a deamplifying upper trough lifting
through MO. A shortwave was evident on radar and GOES imagery
over eastern AR, rotating around the main trough to the the north.

Convection will lift east with the deamplifying trough today, with
areas east of the MS River seeing the greatest potential for
redevelopment in the heat of the day. For tonight, wet ground,
partial clearing and light winds will provide favorable conditions
for patchy fog development.

Low amplitude upper level ridging will provide mostly sunny skies
and warmer temperatures on Sunday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
will be possible during the afternoon. With weak shear, confidence
on coverage and location of thunderstorms is limited. Most areas
will see no rainfall Sunday.

The pattern will become more unsettled Monday and Tuesday, as the
upper ridge axis lifts to our east. A upper trough, perhaps
convectively-reinforced, will lift through the Ozarks, producing
sufficient height falls over the Midsouth to aid in thunderstorm
organization and persistence. Medium range models depict a more
pronounced upper trough rotating through the Ozarks on Tuesday.
The Monday and Tuesday systems will encounter weakly-capped,
convectively unstable air over the Midsouth, with PWAT ranging
from 1.5 to 2.0 inches.

A relatively deep upper level low will form over the Great Lakes
late Wednesday into early Thursday. Upper level flow will transition
to the northwest across the Midsouth on Wednesday, with pre-frontal
moisture pooling contributing to PWAT values near 2 inches. The
cold front will push through the Midsouth late Wednesday night and
early Thursday, in tandem with strengthening northwest flow
aloft. This front will provide focus showers and thunderstorms,
before fair weather and lower humidity arrive Friday and Saturday.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Persistent convective activity is expected to result in
widespread IFR CIGS across the airspace this morning. Confidence
in thunderstorm development is greatest at TUP and to some degree
at MKL where convection allowing models have hinted at a bit more
vigorous redevelopment. Conditions are expected to gradually
improve to MVFR later today, with further improvement to VFR at
most sites by the evening hours.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...JPR