267
FXUS64 KMEG 140254
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
954 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 951 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Forecast is in good shape. No significant changes needed this
evening. The forecast will remain hot and dry through the
weekend. Heat indices are expected to exceed 100 degrees Saturday
and Sunday. A slight chance of rain returns to the Midsouth early
next week along with slightly cooler temperatures.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Warm and dry conditions will prevail through the week with
increased temperatures day by day. Heat indices in the triple
digits will be possible both Saturday and Sunday. Slight relief
looks to arrive early next week as rain chances return.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

A broad 1015 mb high pressure remains centered over Middle
Mississippi Valley resulting in continued dry and warm
conditions. Light and variable winds remain at this hour under
clear skies with current temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. As
winds go calm overnight, under continued clear skies, fog may
develop, reducing visibilities in areas east of the Mississippi
River.

The primary weather story remains increasing temperatures through
the weekend as mid-level ridging continues to build in from the
west. Come Saturday morning, mid-level ridging will center over
the Middle Mississippi River Valley resulting in temperatures in
the low to upper 90s. As ridging continues to build east and
broaden, temperatures will continue to increase resulting in
Sunday being our hottest day of 2024 with highs in the mid to
upper 90s. Areas along and south of the Tennessee and Mississippi
border could see heat indices in the triple digits on Saturday
with the entire Mid-South having the capability of heat indices in
the triple digits on Sunday. Though we are not anticipating a
need for heat products at this time, caution is advised for
outdoor activities both Saturday and Sunday. On a good note, dew
points look to remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s this weekend
leading to a more dry heat than humid heat.

By Monday, mid-level ridging looks to build and amplify over the
East Coast as southerly flow moves over the Mid-South. Gulf moisture
will usher its way up the Middle Mississippi Valley and into our
area supporting possible increased rainfall chances and pop-up
convection Monday and Tuesday. Around 20% PoPs were carried to
account for this increased Gulf moisture. This increased moisture
will also lead to a hot and humid end to next week. 90+ degrees
temperatures to arrive and stay sadly as the CPC 8-14 day outlook
has us above normal heading towards the end of June. Looks summer
has arrived and is here to stay.

AEH

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

VFR conditions will continue for the entire forecast period. Winds
will remain light and variable tonight before becoming southwest
around 5 knots ahead of a weak cold front which moves into the
Mid-South Friday night.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...ARS