842
FXUS64 KMEG 060410
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1110 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

A cold front will push through tonight bringing an end to rain
chances. Dry and pleasant weather is on tap Thursday and Friday.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase again this weekend
as another cold front moves through the region. Dry and cool
weather is expected for early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

An upper trough/MCV will be pushing across the Mid-South over the
next several hours. Surface heating has helped increase instability
across the region with SBCAPEs ranging from 1500 J/kg west of the
MS River to 3000 J/kg in spots east of MS River. The airmass is
also very moist with PWs over 1.75 inches in most areas. Scattered
convection is starting to develop across north MS and parts of
east-central AR. This trend should continue and spread over the
next few hours then dissipate with loss of heating this evening.
Shear is non-existent so the severe threat is low. The moist
airmass will lead to some locally heavy downpours though.

A cold front will push through overnight shutting down precip
chances and ushering in some pleasant weather for the end of the
week. Thursday will still be warm but dewpoints will start drying
out. Some very nice evenings are on tap with low humidities in
store. Friday looks like perfect early summer day with highs in
the mid 80s and dewpoints in the upper 50s.

The northwest flow aloft remains dry through at least Friday
night and then disturbances start to push SE toward the region on
Saturday. Best chances on Saturday appear to be across the
northern tier and the further south the better chance for a rain
free day.

A large upper trough developing over the western Great Lakes and
moving south into the Ohio Valley will push a cold front through
the Mid-South Saturday night into Sunday with scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms. It is too early to judge the
severe weather risks but it appears the combination of adequate
shear and instability may be in place for at least part of the
area during this time frame.

Pleasant weather returns for early next week as dry and cool air
filters in behind the front for a few days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1109 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

IFR stratus possible at MKL and TUP tonight with MVFR cigs at MEM.
Otherwise, VFR with winds shifting from the north 5-10 tomorrow.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...JDS