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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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598 FXUS64 KMEG 300431 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1131 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 930 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Another warm night is on the horizon as current temperatures are in the mid 80s to upper 80s under mostly clear skies with stratus deck moving in from the northwest. A mid-level trough and subsequent cold front will continue to push east, increasing our rainfall chances now and into around sunset tomorrow. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue to slowly spread east across the Missouri Bootheel, portions of northeast Arkansas, and portions of West Tennessee as we head into the overnight hours. A low chance for severe storms still exists now and into the overnight period over portions of northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and portions of West Tennessee. The primary threats remain damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall. Tomorrow will be another dangerously hot day for portions of southwest Tennessee, portions of northeast Arkansas, and northern Mississippi as ridging remains present over these areas. Heat index values >=105 F will be likely over these same areas with the Mississippi Delta once again seeing heat index values >=110 F. Areas with indices >=110 F will have an Excessive Heat Warning in affect and areas with indices >=105 F will have a Heat Advisory in affect 10 AM through 7 PM tomorrow. Population in these areas should limit outdoor activity during these times tomorrow. Re- development looks to occur tomorrow afternoon ahead of the aforementioned cold front with PWATs nearing the 90th percentile at upwards of 2.3 inches. Localized heavy rainfall will be likely with this re- development. AEH && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 345 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Excessive heat will continue into Sunday for portions of the Mid- South until a cold front brings cooler temperatures and increasing rain chances. Hot conditions return to the region on Tuesday and will last through at least Friday when another cold front brings cooler temperatures and increasing rain chances. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Friday) Issued at 345 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Temperatures across the Mid-South have risen into the mid 90s with dewpoint values in the mid to upper 70s, as mid-level ridging has amplified over the region. This has yielded heat index values have ranged between 105 to 115 degrees today. As dewpoint values are a bit higher than originally anticipated, have elected extended the heat advisory and excessive heat warning until 9 pm CDT to account for this trend. The remainder of the current forecast thinking remains similar the prior forecast in that a cold front, associated with a belt of mid-level troughing, will advance toward the Mid-South this evening. Ahead of this front, shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase across portions of southeastern Missouri, eventually moving into the Missouri bootheel and northeastern Arkansas. The latest CAM guidance has been quite variable with respect to the longevity and intensity of this activity which suggests low confidence in the severe thunderstorm impacts tonight. Even so, strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible with the main threats of damaging winds, isolated severe hail, and locally heavy rainfall. The heat will continue across portions of northern Mississippi, eastern Arkansas and southwestern Tennessee tomorrow, as heat index values are expected to range between 105 to over 110 degrees. As such, an Excessive Heat Warning has been issued for the MS Delta region with a Heat Advisory for remainder of northern Mississippi and southwestern Tennessee starting at 15z tomorrow. CAM guidance appears to redevelop convection ahead of the surface cold front tomorrow afternoon. Forecast soundings depict moderate to strong instability, weak shear, and abnormally high PWAT values (greater than 2 inches). Given these variables, the potential exists for water loaded downdrafts with afternoon storm development (e.g. wet microbursts). Cooler temperatures are forecast for areas behind the front on Sunday and Monday. As mid-level ridging strengthens over the Mid-South, hot and dry conditions are anticipated with the possible return of heat headlines starting Tuesday. This pattern looks to continue through Friday when mid-level troughing amplifies over the Midwest bringing a cold front, cooler temperatures, and increasing precipitation chances to the Mid-South. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1122 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Showers and thunderstorms are moving across portions of north central Arkansas. Some of this activity should reach northeast Arkansas in the next couple of hours. Low confidence in much of this activity reaching the Mississippi River overnight. Another round of thunderstorms should develop over portions of west Tennessee and north Mississippi Sunday afternoon before ending by early Sunday evening. VFR conditions should continue for the entire forecast period. Winds should be mainly from the southwest around 5 knots overnight before shifting to the northwest in the morning. North winds around 10 knots are expected in the afternoon with winds shifting to the northeast over western sections of the Mid-South Sunday evening. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ036-048-049. Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ058. MO...None. MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ001>006-009- 013>017-023-024. Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ007- 008-010>012-020>022. TN...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for TNZ049-050- 052>055-088>092. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JPR AVIATION...ARS