Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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950 FXUS64 KMEG 200228 AAA AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Memphis TN 928 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 928 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Tranquil weather continued across the Midsouth this evening. Scattered mid and high clouds were decreasing in coverage, but slowly. At the surface, a high pressure axis extended from the lower Ohio River Valley through the Cumberland Plateau, resulting in light easterly winds over the Midsouth. 9PM temps were in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Current forecast remains on track. PWB && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 313 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 A warm and dry pattern will prevail over the next couple of days as a ridge of high pressure builds over the region. High temperatures will reach the mid 90s by Friday and near 100 degrees on Sunday. Heat advisory criteria is possible across the Mid- South starting on Sunday. A backdoor cold front will move toward the Mid-South late Sunday into Monday, resulting in rain chances returning to the region through the middle part of next week. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 313 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Mid-level water vapor analysis depicts that the Mid-South remains wedged between a mid to upper level ridge that is centered over the Mid-Atlantic and a large area of troughing engulfing the western United States. Over the next couple of days the ridge is expected to build back to the west. As this occurs, skies should remain mostly clear and high temperatures will increase. Daily high temperatures across the Mid-South will be in the mid 90s by Friday and could reach the upper 90s to near 100 degrees by Saturday and Sunday. Despite these impressively high temperature values, heat index values look to remain below advisory criteria through Saturday as dry conditions persist across the region. As the ridge continues to build west, eventually becoming centered over the southwestern U.S., large scale troughing is forecast over the northeastern and Mid-Atlantic states. It appears that around this time, a northwest mid/upper level flow regime begins to take hold over the Mid-South. A back door cold front, associated with this area of troughing, will advance toward the Mid-South late Sunday into Monday. In response to this feature, southerly flow will advect dewpoints in the low to mid 70s into the region. With temperatures in the mid to upper 90s and dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, a heat advisory appears possible starting on Sunday as heat index values approach 105 degrees. Daily rain chances will also increase starting around the early part of next week as mean precipitable water values from the GEFS and EPS depict values that are above the climatological mean for this time of year. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 604 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Easterly winds and a pesky cirrus deck as VFR conditions will prevail. High pressure will begin to slide in around 00z tomorrow and skies will slowly begin to clear out. DNM && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JPR AVIATION...DNM