Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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834 FXUS64 KMEG 161708 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1208 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Air temperatures are running about 2 to 4 degrees warmer than at this time yesterday. Most locations are in the low to mid 90s. Dewpoint temperatures vary as much as 5F across the region. The majority of locations are in the lower 70s, but several airports are reporting mid to upper 70s this past hour. The combination of warmer air temperatures and higher dewpoints has pushed heat indices into the triple digits nearly areawide. A materializing cu field, as seen from GOES Visible Satellite, may limit some short term warming over the next hour or so. However, as it mixes out by late afternoon, there is the potential for more locations to hit the 105F mark for an hour or so. The potential is there, but confidence remains too low to issue an areawide advisory. Will issue a heat advisory for areas along and north of a line from Jonesboro, AR to Brownsville, TN to Savannah, TN line. AC3 && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 337 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Heat indices will reach triple digits in most areas today with a few isolated showers and thunderstorms. More widespread rain will move in tomorrow and Tuesday along with a brief break from the heat. Mostly dry conditions and a warming trend return midweek. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 337 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 The latest 500 mb analysis depicts a broad 590 dam ridge centered over Middle Tennessee. As a result, this afternoon`s temperatures will climb into the upper 90s for the first time since September. Accompanying heat indices are expected to break triple digits again today, but confidence in 105+ HI values was too low to issue any heat headlines with this morning`s forecast package, especially with the potential for isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. A 15-20% PoP was added for areas mostly east of the Mississippi River this afternoon given the latest CAMs` fairly good agreement on a broad swath of isolated convection. As the midlevel ridge drifts over to the Carolinas tomorrow afternoon, a large plume of Gulf moisture will be advected up the MS Delta as southerly flow sets in. This will support more widespread rain potential around 50-60% in the afternoon, coupled with much thicker cloud cover. These conditions should help keep temperatures much cooler through Tuesday, at least relative to this weekend. NBM probabilities of temperatures above 90 degrees on Tuesday are actually fairly low (less than 40%) almost everywhere. By midweek, an anomalously strong upper level ridge starts to build in over the ArkLaTex as the midlevel ridge further amplifies on the East Coast. The NAEFS mean 200 mb heights are in the very upper echelon of climatology starting Wednesday and lasting all the way through next weekend across the entire ArkLaTex region. The combination of being sandwiched these two strong ridges spells out a warming trend for the Mid-South late next week. Expect highs to climb back into the mid 90s by Thursday, further warming to the upper 90s by next weekend. The long-range pattern looks more reminiscent of a typical summertime setup; diurnally driven convection will be possible each day, though overall coverage should remain quite low. CAD && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 633 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 VFR conds expected. Isolated SHRAs/TSRAs are expected east of the MS River this afternoon but coverage precludes mention in the TAFs. The gradient increases a little today across the Delta with winds around 10 kts at MEM and TUP. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD AVIATION...SJM