Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
851 FXUS64 KMEG 101736 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1236 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Cooler and drier air will filter in behind a cold front through Tuesday. Afternoon highs will be in the 80s and lows tonight in the upper 50s to lower 60s. A building ridge of high pressure will bring a continuation of dry weather into the first half of next weekend with temperatures rising into the lower to middle 90s. Increasing humidity will result in a return of shower and thunderstorm chances by Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 GOES-16 Water Vapor satellite trends this morning shows an upper- level centered over eastern Quebec with an upper-level ridge axis centered over the Rockies. Latest surface analysis places a cold front from central Georgia back through the I-20 corridor from Mississippi into northeast Texas. Regional WSR-88D radar trends indicate a few isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over portions of central Arkansas into portions of north and central Mississippi. Winds are relatively light behind this front and the combination of nearly calm winds and rainfall in the past 24 hours has resulted in the development of locally dense fog and low stratus across northwest Tennessee near the Tennessee River. As of 3 AM CDT, temperatures range from the upper 50s to lower 60s north of I-40, and middle 60s to lower 70s south. The aforementioned low stratus and fog should begin to improve this morning as temperatures warm into the upper 60s to lower 70s. A Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect through 9 AM CDT and will be monitored for possible expansion before expiration if short-term trends warrant any adjustments. Cooler and slightly less humid air will continue to filter in behind the front over the next 48 hours as high pressure builds across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Highs this afternoon and Tuesday will be mainly in the upper 70s to lower 80s with lows tonight falling back into the 50s. Mid to long range operational and ensemble model trends continue to show an upper-level ridge building across the Lower Mississippi Valley into late this week. 00Z NAEFS indicates temperatures be about 1 to 2 standard deviations from normal across the region, resulting in temperatures in the lower to middle 90s. These hot temperatures combined with slowly increasing low level moisture may result in heat index values between 100-103 degrees towards the latter half of the weekend. A weak back door cold front will try to drop into the area Friday night into Saturday with confidence remaining too low to introduce rain chances into the forecast at this time. Shower and thunderstorm chances will be possible late in the weekend as tropical moisture from the Gulf moves up into the region. CJC && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 VFR conditions through the period as ridging dominates the region. Fog with reduced vsbys are expected to develop overnight at MKL as skies clear and winds go calm. Otherwise, light north winds will shift northeast around sunset and remain through the TAF period across all terminals. AEH && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...AEH