704
FXUS64 KMEG 020434
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1134 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 914 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Skies are mostly clear across the Mid-South this evening with
temperatures in the lower 70s to around 80 degrees. A combination
of clear skies, light winds and unseasonably dry air will allow
temperatures to fall into the 60s across the entire region.
Current forecast looks good with no update needed.

ARS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 319 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Fantastic early July weather is in store across the Mid-South for
tonight as temperatures drop into the 60s. The heat will return
Tuesday with temperatures climbing into the 90s but humidity will
remain relatively low for one more day. By Wednesday, the heat and
humidity spell a return to oppressive conditions across the
region. Occasional rain chances will affect the Mid-South, mainly
during the afternoon and evening hours, Wednesday into the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

July is certainly starting off on the right foot as temperatures
have warmed into into the 80s across the Mid-South. Coupled with
dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s, heat indices are a good
20-25 degrees lower than yesterday. The mid-level clouds moving
into the region from the northwest have been consistently eroding
as they bump into the subtropical ridge, allowing for mostly sunny
conditions. Winds will become light overnight, allowing
temperatures to fall into the lower 60s, with a few areas
briefly dipping into the 50s around sunrise.

The heat returns in earnest tomorrow as southerly winds resume.
The relatively dry air will allow temperatures to warm
efficiently. The NBM 10th percentile max temperature for Memphis
is 94F so there isn`t much reason to think the high will not be
in the low/mid 90s across much of the area. Heat indices look to
remain in the 90s for most locations, but may breach 100F in some
areas across north MS. Temperatures Wednesday may be a few degrees
warmer with highs in the mid/upper 90s, but the humidity will be
a significant factor. Heat headlines will likely be needed across
most or all of the CWA Wednesday and Thursday as heat indices
exceed 105F and potentially exceed 110F.

The main fly in the ointment for the midweek period is the
potential for scattered, diurnal convection. This is less likely
on Wednesday as the ridge maintains its grip on the region, but
rain chances will increase for Thursday as a series of shortwave
troughs damp the ridge and provide some large scale forcing for
ascent as a cold front approaches the Mid-South. The greatest risk
area for thunderstorms through Thursday will be over the OH Valley
and the steering flow (still from the west-southwest) is not
favorable to bring this activity in the CWA. This changes by
Friday as a stronger wave traverses the Mid-MS Valley and drives a
cold front through the CWA.

Slightly cooler conditions are expected heading into the weekend
but we`ll maintain at least token rain chances through the
period as a broad, baggy trough sets up over the central CONUS.
This pattern is poised to persist into early next week per most
members of the EPS, GEFS, and GEPS. However, there are a few
outlying members that develop a ridge from the Four Corners into
the Central Plains that could lead to warmer and dry conditions by
Monday. Confidence right now is leaning toward the former
solution of seasonal temperatures and diurnal rain chances. The
remnants of Hurricane Beryl are a wild card at the moment given
the uncertainty in the track. It`s currently most likely that
most of the moisture with this system remains over Mexico into
TX.

MJ

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Light winds
will begin to shift more southernly by daybreak Tuesday morning.

ACH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...MJ
AVIATION...ACH