542
FXUS62 KMFL 231753
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
153 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Mid-level high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico is keeping a
relatively drier air mass over much of Florida today but it will
begin to break down on Tuesday with the return of moisture
increasing ahead of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine`s departure
from the northwestern Caribbean Sea through the Yucatan Channel.
The drier air mass and high aloft will again help keep convective
coverage lower than climatology while also limiting the potential
for stronger thunderstorms.

The flip side of less cloud cover and convection is that
temperatures will again be a little warmer with many areas
reaching the lower 90s and some portions of Southwest Florida
reaching the mid 90s. Heat index values will range from 100 to 105
across much of the peninsula with portions of Southwest Florida
reaching up to 109 on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 221 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Models begin the long term with a large area of disturbed weather
over the NW Caribbean pushing a plume of deep moisture into the
area, with the mid level ridge dominating most of the SE CONUS
weakening and migrating further east. POPs/Wx coverage jumps into
the 70-80 percent range on Wednesday with model PWATs well above
seasonal normals. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected,
with best chances over the west coast of SoFlo.

Ensembles and global model solutions are now falling in better
agreement regarding potential for tropical development out of the
aforementioned area of disturbed weather, with a strengthening low
bringing tightening pressure gradients across the region through the
rest of the work week. This will result in breezy and gusty periods
as the low pushes northward across the central/eastern GOMEX. As sfc
winds veer to a more southerly flow, moisture advection continues
across SoFlo with POPs into the 80-90 percent range Thursday and
Friday. However, the forecast scenario remains highly uncertain as
adjustments will be required depending on which solution
materializes.

Latest WPC outlooks show much of the region under a Marginal risk
for excessive rain on Days 2-4. Therefore, regardless of the final
outcome, there is a high confidence level that flood-related hazards
can be expected for much of SoFlo in the Wed-Fri timeframe. For the
weekend weather, the scenario remains highly uncertain, with long
range models still showing significant divergence in potential
solutions.

The increasing cloud cover and rain activity should bring down temps
across the area, with afternoon highs likely remaining in the mid to
upper 80s, and depending on timing and coverage of rainfall, some
locations may end up cooler than that. Overnight lows will generally
be in the mid to upper 70s through the end of the work week and into
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Easterly wind flow will pick up except for APF where the Gulf sea
breeze will turn things westerly. Afternoon shower and storm
activity should be focused more inland and then west by the
evening. Convection should diminish late evening into the
overnight. Atlantic showers could return early on Tuesday
morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 135 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Strengthening easterly wind early this week as the pressure
gradient across the region tightens. Showers and thunderstorms
will be much less active as drier air continues over the region.
Brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds may accompany any
thunderstorm that forms. Eyes will turn to potential tropical
development in the northwestern Caribbean mid to late this week
which may lead to deteriorating conditions across the local
waters.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 135 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Minor coastal flooding conditions should begin to improve as
northerly swell and the tidal influence decreases, but some minor
coastal flooding is possible during high tide around vulnerable low-
lying coastal areas. Additionally, a moderate risk of rip
currents continues for the Palm Beaches. However, beginning
Tuesday, a high risk of rip currents is likely for the South
Florida Atlantic Coast beaches.

High Tide Tides...
* Virginia Key - 2:09 PM Mon, 2:18 AM Tues, 3:07 PM Tue
* South Port Everglades - 1:28 PM Mon, 1:39 AM Tue, 2:33 PM Tue
* Lake Worth Pier - 1:14 PM Mon, 1:24 AM Tue, 2:19 PM Tue
* Naples Bay, North - 7:21 PM Mon, 5:10 AM Tue
* Flamingo Visitors Center - 9:02 PM Mon, 8:08 AM Tue, 10:38 PM
  Tue

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            80  90  80  88 /  20  30  50  80
West Kendall     77  91  78  89 /  20  40  50  80
Opa-Locka        79  91  79  89 /  20  30  40  80
Homestead        80  89  80  88 /  20  50  60  80
Fort Lauderdale  79  89  79  88 /  20  30  40  70
N Ft Lauderdale  79  90  80  89 /  20  30  40  70
Pembroke Pines   80  92  80  90 /  20  30  40  80
West Palm Beach  79  89  79  90 /  20  30  30  60
Boca Raton       79  90  79  90 /  30  30  40  70
Naples           77  94  78  89 /  30  50  30  90

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...RAG