148
FXUS62 KMFL 171743
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
143 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 119 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

A band of enhanced moisture on the leading edge of a westward
moving low-mid level shortwave trough will move across southern
and western sections of the area, mainly from the Miami area
westward to Collier County. This area will continue to have the
higher rain chances this afternoon, decreasing from east to west
through the late afternoon hours. Rainfall amounts generally
from a quarter to a third of an inch can be expected, with
localized amounts of a half-inch or slightly higher. A few
thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon, with enough
diurnal instability characterized by CAPE values around 2000
j/kg in the aforementioned areas. Drier air depicted in derived
GOES Total Precipitable Water data (values less than 1.5 inches)
over the Bahamas are poised to move over the southern Florida
peninsula area on the back side of the shortwave trough this
afternoon, leading to a mainly dry afternoon and evening over most
areas. A rather tight pressure gradient from surface high pressure
building from the western North Atlantic will lead to breezy east
winds gusting to around 25 mph this afternoon and early this
evening.

Mostly dry conditions are expected to begin Tuesday as the axis of
the relatively dry air should be over South Florida. However, as
the day progresses we expect moisture levels to increase ahead of
a quick-moving low level trough embedded in the fresh easterly
wind flow, with scattered west-moving showers and thunderstorms
becoming more common during the second half of the day. Highest
PoPs (50-60%)are in the Palm Beach County where the area of
higher moisture values are expected to arrive Tuesday afternoon,
with generally 30-40% PoPs elsewhere. Breezy east winds will
continue, although perhaps slightly less so than today.

As far as temperatures go, went on the higher end of the NBM
temperature distribution, with near 90 east coast and mid 90s west
coast. Heat index values will approach 105F in the Naples area
this afternoon. The presence of the drier air at least for the
first half of tomorrow will lower heat index values slightly,
although high temperatures should still range from near 90 east to
the mid 90s western interior and Gulf coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

For the middle to the end of the week, a strong mid to upper level
ridge will remain parked over the Mid-Atlantic states. At the same
time, a mid level inverted trough will try to close off into a low
in the western Atlantic as it moves west northwestward. At the
surface, a broad area of low pressure may try to develop north of
the Bahamas as it pushes west northwestward. The National Hurricane
Center currently gives this disturbance a 30 percent chance of
development as it moves towards the Southeastern coast.

Forecast uncertainty remains very high for this part of the forecast
as the mid level ridge and surface high pressure centered off to the
north will play an important role in steering this disturbance. The
guidance still remains in disagreement as far as where this system
will track and if it actually develops or not. Regardless of
development, deep layer tropical moisture will begin to spread back
into the region beginning on Wednesday and lasting through the end
of the week. This will increase the chances of showers and
thunderstorms area wide during this time frame. While the exact
details still remain very uncertain due to differences in guidance,
the potential for heavy downpours for the middle to the end of the
week will lead to the potential for localized flooding concerns to
return to portions of South Florida. This will continue to be
monitored as the week progresses. High temperatures for the middle
to the end of the week will generally remain in the upper 80s across
the east coast to the lower 90s across Southwest Florida.

Heading into the upcoming weekend, uncertainty will still remain
very high as this is towards the end of the forecast period and will
remain dependent on the track and timing of the tropical disturbance
in the western Atlantic. Chances of showers and thunderstorms may
still remain elevated during this time frame with the potential for
deep tropical moisture to remain over the region. This will continue
to be monitored as the week progresses. High temperatures for the
weekend will remain in the upper 80s along the east coast to lower
90s across the interior sections.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 119 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Scattered SHRA mainly affecting MIA area terminals through 20z
with brief MVFR ceilings and/or visibility, then potentially also
affecting KAPF area through 00z. A few TSRA are possible over the
interior through 00z, but too few in coverage to mention in TAFs.
VFR conditions will prevail after 00z and through the first half
of the day on Tuesday. Winds 080-090 degrees 15g25 kt through 02z,
then again gusting around 20 knots after 14z Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 119 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Moderate to fresh easterly winds persisting through mid-week will
build seas to 5-7 feet over the Atlantic waters Tuesday night and
Wednesday, and 3-5 feet over the Gulf waters. Small Craft Advisory
will continue through Tuesday, and likely be extended through
Wednesday. Some slight decrease in the E-SE winds for the end of
the week is expected to lead to lower seas to end the week.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will periodically affect the
local waters, becoming more numerous Tuesday night and continuing
through the remainder of the week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 119 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

The moderate to fresh easterly winds will keep a high risk of rip
currents at the Atlantic beaches for most of the rest of the week.
Surf will pick up to around 3-4 feet Tuesday and Wednesday at the
Palm Beach and Broward county beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            79  90  80  88 /  20  40  50  50
West Kendall     77  91  77  89 /  20  40  40  60
Opa-Locka        79  92  79  89 /  10  40  50  50
Homestead        79  89  79  87 /  20  40  40  50
Fort Lauderdale  80  89  80  86 /  10  50  50  50
N Ft Lauderdale  80  90  79  87 /  10  50  50  50
Pembroke Pines   80  90  80  89 /  10  40  50  50
West Palm Beach  77  90  77  87 /  10  60  50  60
Boca Raton       79  90  79  87 /  10  50  50  50
Naples           76  94  77  92 /  10  40  20  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ630.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Tuesday
     for GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/Marine/Beaches...Molleda
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...Molleda