562
FXUS62 KMFL 172327
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
727 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 722 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Lowered PoPs a bit with the evening update to account for radar
trends and latest CAM output, but retained some storm chances
through the early evening to account for potential initiation
along various mesoscale boundaries currently present over SFL.
Otherwise the overnight period should be generally dry with lows
in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 203 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

A deep-layered area of low pressure continues to sit over the
southeastern United States with an associated frontal boundary
sagging south across the peninsula of Florida. This setup will
remain over the region through mid-week which will lead to a more
unsettled pattern but mitigate the heat risk compared to previous
days.

Thunderstorms on both days could see some enhanced support from an
upper level jet and some periods with a healthy low level jet. Ample
moisture will allow for convective coverage and PoPs to remain above
climatological norms for this time of year with more activity than
just a normal sea breeze thunderstorm day. Boundary collisions and
sea breeze interactions could provide some lower level enhancement
that could lead to strong to isolated severe thunderstorms. Strong
to locally damaging winds and localized flooding from excessive
rainfall continue to be the main concerns.

Temperatures will be warm but heat index values will not be as hot
as in recent days. The extra cloud cover could help limit the
fast-pace of diurnal heating in the mornings and reinforced cold
pools in the wake of convection could provide some brief periods
of relatively cooler temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 309 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Towards the end of the week and into the early weekend, the upper
troughing will continue to dig southward into the NE Gulf of Mexico
and South Florida, maintaining west-northwesterly flow over the
region aloft. Meanwhile a slog of deep tropical moisture remains in
place over the region as a diffuse stationary frontal boundary
meanders through this period. The presence of cooler upper level
temperatures (-6 to -7C @ 500 mb) and a pocket of divergence aloft
may act to enhance convective coverage and intensity at times,
though most convective will be driven by localized convergence
maxima owing to mesoscale processes. Expect bouts of periodic heavy
rainfall to continue, particularly in the afternoon when instability
and low-level convergence is maximized.

By Sunday and into early next week, a dominant/expansive ridge of
high pressure will emanate from the TX/Mexico region and increase
geopotential heights across South Florida. This may be commensurate
with a wedge of drier air advecting towards the region through this
same period (simultaneously), though there exists uncertainty
regarding the southward extent of this drier airmass. For now, it
appears that strong upper ridging coupled with a lack of moisture
should allow for rainfall totals that are below climatological norms
through this period.

Temperatures through this period will hover around seasonal norms
through this period. Afternoon high temperatures should reach the
upper 80s to low 90, while dewpoints reach the mid to upper 70s
through the early part of the weekend. Heat Advisories could be
necessary through this period, though this will be contingent on the
rainfall influence for a given day. Towards the end of the weekend
and into early next week, dewpoints may drop a few degrees, although
less cloud coverage and rainfall could allow for more oppressive
temperatures through this period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 722 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Generally VFR conditions will prevail through the overnight
period, although an isolated thunderstorm can`t be ruled out over
the east coast terminals through the early evening hours.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop Wednesday
afternoon, but confidence in timing/coverage remains relatively
low. Light and variable winds will persist through the overnight
and morning period, before becoming sea breeze driven by Wednesday
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 203 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Generally light winds will prevail through most of this week as a
weak surface boundary remains just to the north of the area. Seas
across the northern Atlantic waters will gradually lessen as
northerly swell declines through mid-week. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible each day through the period and could
lead to locally higher winds and seas.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 203 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Decreasing northerly swell will result in a high risk of rip
currents for the Palm Beaches once again today with a moderate risk
of rip currents elsewhere on the east coast of South Florida.

There will also be the continued potential for minor to moderate
coastal flooding around periods of high tide due to astronomically
higher tides associated with this full moon through mid-week.

High Tide Times:

* Naples: 1256 PM Tuesday, 125 AM Wednesday, 146 PM Wednesday
* Lake Worth: 814 PM Tuesday, 838 AM Wednesday, 901 PM Wednesday
* Port Everglades: 831 PM Tuesday, 858 AM Wednesday, 919 PM
  Wednesday
* Virginia Key: 918 PM Tuesday, 945 AM Wednesday, 1004 pm
  Wednesday

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            77  90  77  89 /  40  70  40  70
West Kendall     75  90  74  90 /  50  70  40  70
Opa-Locka        76  90  76  91 /  40  70  40  70
Homestead        76  90  76  89 /  40  70  40  70
Fort Lauderdale  77  89  76  89 /  40  60  40  70
N Ft Lauderdale  77  90  77  90 /  40  60  40  70
Pembroke Pines   77  92  77  92 /  40  70  40  70
West Palm Beach  76  91  76  91 /  40  60  40  60
Boca Raton       76  91  76  91 /  40  60  40  60
Naples           77  91  77  91 /  30  50  30  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ069-075-
     168-172>174.

     High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ168.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....SRB
AVIATION...Carr