Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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546 FXUS62 KMFL 190534 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 134 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 704 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 No major changes to the near term forecast. Most will remain dry overnight with some isolated showers possible along the east coast. Rain chances start to increase along the metro around sunrise. Overnight lows will range from the middle 70s over the interior to around 80 close to the coasts. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 1245 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 South Florida remains situated in a region of weak synoptic ascent as expansive mid-level ridging remains entrenched across the region and the western Atlantic waters. At the surface, an expansive ridge of high pressure continues to advect into the region resulting in breezy to gusty easterlies prevailing across South Florida. Drier air over the western Atlantic continues to pivot in, resulting in relatively low rain chances in the forecast for today. Mesoanalysis indicates a north to south PWAT/CAPE gradient across the region with the most conducive values for convection to the south of our region over the Florida Keys. Miami (KMIA) ACARS data from 16:20 UTC shows the large column of dry air from 925mb up quite nicely. Any shower activity that may develop today will be relatively shallow in vertical extent with limited convective scope. Given the breezy easterly flow, temperatures will be quite comfortable along the immediate east coast with high temperatures in the middle 80s. Elsewhere, temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s are forecast for the majority of the region with the exception of the inland locales of the Gulf coast metro area that could reach the middle 90s. With the continued advection of easterly flow across the region, a higher concentration of moisture will pivot into South Florida as the surface ridge remains in firm control. The higher moisture content will result in slightly increased rain chances across the region with high temperatures a little cooler given an increase in cloud cover and convection. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 349 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 The primary feature to watch for in the latter half of the week continues to be a disturbance several hundred miles east of the Bahamas associated with a surface trough. The latest tropical outlook (06Z) by the National Hurricane Center indicates this feature has a low end chance (20%) of developing tropical characteristics over the next 7 days. We continue to keep an eye on potential development of the surface low. Regardless, there will be a surge of moisture into South Florida late this week bringing higher chances of daily showers and scattered thunderstorms in the extended forecast (50-70%). The ensembles forecast a rise in PWATs, with a majority of members pushing 2"+, starting Thursday into the weekend. Therefore, formation of a tropical disturbance or not, we have an active, wet week and weekend ahead of us with the potential for rainfall and thunderstorms across South Florida. Due to the substantial rainfall last week, the ground is heavily saturated and urban areas sensitive to heavy rain. While the forecast QPF values are relatively low, any quick, heavy showers may lead to flooding in areas recently impacted. With the persistent easterly flow, temperatures will be seasonal for the remainder of the week and weekend. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s regionwide. Overnight lows will drop into the 70s for a majority of South FL, other than the east coast which will keep to the low 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 349 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 The primary feature to watch for in the latter half of the week continues to be a disturbance several hundred miles east of the Bahamas associated with a surface trough. The latest tropical outlook (06Z) by the National Hurricane Center indicates this feature has a low end chance (20%) of developing tropical characteristics over the next 7 days. We continue to keep an eye on potential development of the surface low. Regardless, there will be a surge of moisture into South Florida late this week bringing higher chances of daily showers and scattered thunderstorms in the extended forecast (50-70%). The ensembles forecast a rise in PWATs, with a majority of members pushing 2"+, starting Thursday into the weekend. Therefore, formation of a tropical disturbance or not, we have an active, wet week and weekend ahead of us with the potential for rainfall and thunderstorms across South Florida. Due to the substantial rainfall last week, the ground is heavily saturated and urban areas sensitive to heavy rain. While the forecast QPF values are relatively low, any quick, heavy showers may lead to flooding in areas recently impacted. With the persistent easterly flow, temperatures will be seasonal for the remainder of the week and weekend. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s regionwide. Overnight lows will drop into the 70s for a majority of South FL, other than the east coast which will keep to the low 80s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 125 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Although it won`t be impossible for a stray shower to move across the area this morning, conditions in general should remain VFR through around VFR through around 12z. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is possible after 12Z, while easterly winds become gusty. VCSH entered early Wednesday morning for the east coast TAF sites and then VCTS after 16Z. After 21Z the convection should focus more over the interior and SW FL so VCTS was entered at APF after 21Z. Brief sub-VFR conditions are possible with the strongest cells. && .MARINE... Issued at 1245 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Expect moderate to breezy easterly winds to prevail through mid week, along with seas up to 7 feet over the Atlantic waters, and up to 5 feet over the Gulf. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Atlantic and Biscayne Bay waters through until at least Wednesday morning. Some slight decrease in the E-SE winds for the end of the week is expected to lead to lower seas to end the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will periodically affect the local waters, becoming more numerous through the remainder of the work week. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1245 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Continued easterly winds will keep a high risk of rip currents across all the Atlantic beaches during the rest of the work week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 88 78 88 79 / 60 50 50 40 West Kendall 88 77 90 77 / 60 50 50 40 Opa-Locka 88 78 89 79 / 60 50 50 40 Homestead 88 79 88 79 / 60 50 50 40 Fort Lauderdale 87 79 86 79 / 60 50 50 40 N Ft Lauderdale 87 79 88 79 / 60 50 50 40 Pembroke Pines 90 79 91 80 / 60 50 50 40 West Palm Beach 87 77 88 77 / 60 50 50 30 Boca Raton 88 78 88 78 / 60 50 50 30 Naples 92 76 93 77 / 60 30 50 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168-172- 173. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ630. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ650-651-670- 671. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for GMZ656- 657-676. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hadi LONG TERM....Rizzuto AVIATION...17