Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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800 FXUS62 KMFL 181646 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1246 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 1245 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 South Florida remains situated in a region of weak synoptic ascent as expansive mid-level ridging remains entrenched across the region and the western Atlantic waters. At the surface, an expansive ridge of high pressure continues to advect into the region resulting in breezy to gusty easterlies prevailing across South Florida. Drier air over the western Atlantic continues to pivot in, resulting in relatively low rain chances in the forecast for today. Mesoanalysis indicates a north to south PWAT/CAPE gradient across the region with the most conducive values for convection to the south of our region over the Florida Keys. Miami (KMIA) ACARS data from 16:20 UTC shows the large column of dry air from 925mb up quite nicely. Any shower activity that may develop today will be relatively shallow in vertical extent with limited convective scope. Given the breezy easterly flow, temperatures will be quite comfortable along the immediate east coast with high temperatures in the middle 80s. Elsewhere, temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s are forecast for the majority of the region with the exception of the inland locales of the Gulf coast metro area that could reach the middle 90s. With the continued advection of easterly flow across the region, a higher concentration of moisture will pivot into South Florida as the surface ridge remains in firm control. The higher moisture content will result in slightly increased rain chances across the region with high temperatures a little cooler given an increase in cloud cover and convection. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 349 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 The primary feature to watch for in the latter half of the week continues to be a disturbance several hundred miles east of the Bahamas associated with a surface trough. The latest tropical outlook (06Z) by the National Hurricane Center indicates this feature has a low end chance (20%) of developing tropical characteristics over the next 7 days. We continue to keep an eye on potential development of the surface low. Regardless, there will be a surge of moisture into South Florida late this week bringing higher chances of daily showers and scattered thunderstorms in the extended forecast (50-70%). The ensembles forecast a rise in PWATs, with a majority of members pushing 2"+, starting Thursday into the weekend. Therefore, formation of a tropical disturbance or not, we have an active, wet week and weekend ahead of us with the potential for rainfall and thunderstorms across South Florida. Due to the substantial rainfall last week, the ground is heavily saturated and urban areas sensitive to heavy rain. While the forecast QPF values are relatively low, any quick, heavy showers may lead to flooding in areas recently impacted. With the persistent easterly flow, temperatures will be seasonal for the remainder of the week and weekend. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s regionwide. Overnight lows will drop into the 70s for a majority of South FL, other than the east coast which will keep to the low 80s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1245 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Breezy easterly flow continues across South Florida this afternoon with mostly VFR conditions expected outside of isolated shower activity. Have removed VCSH out of most of the east coast terminal sites given the current environment. That being said, if an isolated shower does impact a terminal, a brief bout of MVFR cigs could be realized. && .MARINE... Issued at 1245 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Expect moderate to breezy easterly winds to prevail through mid week, along with seas up to 7 feet over the Atlantic waters, and up to 5 feet over the Gulf. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Atlantic and Biscayne Bay waters through until at least Wednesday morning. Some slight decrease in the E-SE winds for the end of the week is expected to lead to lower seas to end the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will periodically affect the local waters, becoming more numerous through the remainder of the work week. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1245 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Continued easterly winds will keep a high risk of rip currents across all the Atlantic beaches during the rest of the work week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 79 88 79 88 / 30 40 50 60 West Kendall 78 88 77 89 / 30 50 50 60 Opa-Locka 79 88 78 89 / 30 40 50 60 Homestead 80 87 79 88 / 30 50 50 60 Fort Lauderdale 80 86 79 86 / 40 40 50 60 N Ft Lauderdale 80 87 79 87 / 40 40 50 60 Pembroke Pines 80 90 79 90 / 30 40 50 60 West Palm Beach 78 87 77 87 / 40 50 50 70 Boca Raton 79 88 78 88 / 40 40 50 60 Naples 77 92 76 92 / 10 50 30 70 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for FLZ168-172- 173. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ630-650-651- 670-671. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hadi LONG TERM....JS AVIATION...Hadi