Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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038 FXUS62 KMFL 161738 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 138 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 136 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight moves into the Carolinas as a mid- level trough sits over the southeastern United States. High pressure over the northeastern United States will block a path north for the remnants of Eight as it becomes absorbed into a developing mid-level low and an associated frontal boundary currently north of our area advances across the peninsula of Florida tonight into Tuesday. The warm, wet, and unsettled pattern will continue through the short term period thanks to the aforementioned synoptic scale features, diurnally-driven sea breezes, and continued rich low-level moisture. Some vigorous thunderstorms are possible this afternoon with the primary concerns being strong to locally damaging wind gusts and localized flooding due to excessive rainfall. Boundary interactions today and again on Tuesday could provide a focus for more vigorous convection. More cloud cover earlier on Tuesday compared to previous days could help keep heat index values in check and potentially end the string of Heat Advisories. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 250 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 The mid-level low across the southeastern United States will gradually lift northward through the mid-week period which will veer 500mb flow across the region to a westerly then northwesterly direction. The elongation of troughing over the eastern United States will keep 500mb temperatures in the -6C to -7C range during the mid-week period with forecasted daily afternoon lapse rates in the 5.5 to 6.0 C/km range. At the surface, we will remain situated to the south of the weak yet quite persistent stationary boundary still draped across Central Florida. Ample precipitable water (PWAT) values of 2.0+ inches and a fairly moist saturated column will result in daily afternoon rain chances near climatological norms. The prevailing weak surface winds and the generally westerly flow aloft will keep a rain pattern favoring SoFlos interior and eastern metro areas. Deeper convection will again focus along sea breeze and outflow boundaries mainly in the afternoon hours, with the continued potential of a few isolated strong to marginally severe pulse storms when ascent is briefly maximized along those aforementioned mesoscale boundaries. Afternoon highs are expected to moderate a little and remain near seasonal normals (upper 80s to low 90s). However, peak heat indices will likely remain in the low triple digits, but should remain just below heat advisory criteria. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 136 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 As the sea breezes develop and advance inland slowly, the highest risk for sub-VFR comes in the afternoon hours. Short-fused AMDs for IFR/LIFR may be necessary for directly impacted terminals. Light wind flow will prevail through much of the period turning onshore briefly with the sea breezes in the afternoon. Conditions should improve to VFR late evening into the overnight though some patchy inland fog/low stratus is possible. && .MARINE... Issued at 136 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Generally light south to westerly winds will prevail through most of this week as a weak surface boundary and Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight remain north of the area. Seas across the northern Atlantic waters will remain elevated through this afternoon as northerly swell generated by Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight offshore of the southeastern United States moves in. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day through the period and could lead to locally higher winds and seas. && .BEACHES... Issued at 136 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Ongoing northerly swell associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight and its remnants will result in a continued elevated rip current risk through the middle part of the work week along the Atlantic beaches of South Florida as the swell gradually subsides. There will also be the continued potential for minor coastal flooding around periods of high tide due to astronomically higher tides associated with this full moon through mid-week. A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect through at least Wednesday. High Tide Times: * Naples: 12:05 pm Monday, 1:01 am Tuesday, 12:56 pm Tuesday * Lake Worth: 7:27 pm Monday, 7:46 am Tuesday, 8:14 pm Tuesday * Port Everglades: 7:44 pm Monday, 8:06 am Tuesday, 8:31 pm Tuesday * Virginia Key: 8:30 pm Monday, 8:53 am Tuesday, 9:18 pm Tuesday && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 78 90 77 90 / 40 50 40 70 West Kendall 76 90 75 91 / 40 60 30 70 Opa-Locka 78 90 77 91 / 40 60 40 70 Homestead 77 90 76 89 / 40 60 40 70 Fort Lauderdale 78 89 77 88 / 40 60 40 70 N Ft Lauderdale 78 90 77 90 / 40 60 40 60 Pembroke Pines 78 92 77 92 / 40 60 40 70 West Palm Beach 78 91 76 91 / 40 50 40 60 Boca Raton 78 91 77 91 / 40 50 40 60 Naples 79 90 77 91 / 20 40 20 50 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ071>074-172>174. High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ168. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RAG LONG TERM....Hadi AVIATION...RAG