093
FXUS62 KMFL 301708
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
108 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1223 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

A mid level shortwave will continue to push across South Florida
through the rest of this afternoon and into tonight. With plenty
of deep layer tropical moisture in place across the region, this
mid level shortwave will continue to provide the support to fuel
numerous showers and thunderstorms across the area through the
evening hours. Since the steering flow will remain rather weak,
showers and storms will remain slow moving. This, combined with
the possibility of multiple rounds of heavy downpours, will allow
for the potential of localized flooding especially over the metro
areas. While the chances of strong thunderstorm development
remain low, they cannot be entirely ruled out this afternoon. The
best chances of strong thunderstorm development will be over the
interior portions of Southwest Florida as the shortwave passes
over during peak diurnal heating. The strongest thunderstorms
could contain gusty winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Most of the showers and thunderstorms over land will diminsh as
the evening progresses due to loss of diurnal heating. The mid
level shortwave will still be close enough to support the chance
of additional shower and thunderstorm development over the local
waters as well as the east coast overnight. Low temperatures
tonight will generally range from the lower 70s across the Lake
Okeechobee region to the upper 70s across the east coast metro
areas.

On Monday, the weather pattern across South Florida will remain
rather unsettled as the mid level disturbance slowly pushes into
the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, high pressure in
the western Atlantic will get pinched further to the east as a
frontal boundary remains draped over the Southeast and Gulf Coast
States. This will cause the winds to become southeasterly as the
day progresses. Plenty of deep tropical moisture will remain in
place as forecast soundings show PWAT values ranging between 2.1
and 2.3 inches. This will help to support the development of
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms as the day
progresses. The showers and storms will start out over the local
waters and the east coast metro areas in the morning before
shifting towards the interior and west coast during the afternoon
and evening hours. Since the steering flow will remain rather
light, the storm motion will continue to remain slow. This could
allow for the potential of localized flooding to continue
especially in areas that are already saturated from recent heavy
rainfall. High temperatures on Monday will generally rise into the
upper 80s and lower 90s across most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

A trough over the eastern United States will help keep an unsettled
pattern over much of Florida to kick off the work week and that will
linger into mid-week before the trough deamplifies as it slides east
into the Atlantic. Abundant tropical moisture will remain over the
region as large-scale high pressure builds in over Florida on the
surface and the southeastern United States aloft. Beryl is forecast
to remain south of the area thanks to this high pressure pattern as
it moves westerly to west-northwesterly this week. This will mean
that diurnally-driven sea breeze showers and thunderstorms will be
the main story through the week along with continued warmth. Heat
index values will quietly creep back up through the week with the
potential for Heat Advisories returning. Easterly flow will favor
morning convection around the Atlantic moving inland and focused
over the interior and Southwest Florida by the afternoon and early
evening hours each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to push through the east
coast TAF sites through the early afternoon hours as winds
increase out of the east. Gusty and erratic winds along with sub-
VFR conditions are possible in and around showers and storms. As
the afternoon progresses, conditions will improve on the east
coast. These storms will continue to push towards the interior
and west coast this afternoon into this evening. Winds will also
shift to the WSW at KAPF this afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops.
Short fused AMDs will be likely throughout the day.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1223 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

A gentle to moderate easterly wind flow will continue through
tonight across the local waters. These winds will gradually become
southeasterly over the Atlantic waters during the early portion of
the week. Over the Gulf waters, winds will become south to
southwesterly during this time frame. Seas over the Atlantic and
Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or less during the early portion
of the week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will
develop each day across the local waters. Winds and seas could be
locally higher in and around showers and storms.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1223 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

The risk of rip currents may increase across the Atlantic Coast
beaches towards the middle of the week as onshore flow increases.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            77  89  79  91 /  50  60  50  70
West Kendall     75  90  77  91 /  40  70  40  70
Opa-Locka        77  91  78  91 /  40  60  50  70
Homestead        77  89  79  90 /  50  60  50  70
Fort Lauderdale  78  89  80  89 /  40  60  50  70
N Ft Lauderdale  79  90  80  91 /  40  60  50  70
Pembroke Pines   78  92  79  93 /  40  60  50  70
West Palm Beach  77  91  79  91 /  40  60  40  70
Boca Raton       78  91  80  91 /  40  50  50  70
Naples           75  89  78  91 /  40  70  40  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....RAG
AVIATION...JS