574
FXUS62 KMFL 292036
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
436 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1229 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Mid level ridging will remain in place for the rest of this
afternoon across the Florida Peninsula while the surface
ridge axis of an area of high pressure centered in the Western
Atlantic remains close to the region. This has allowed for a
slight uptick in the easterly wind flow this afternoon across the
region. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will
continue to develop mainly over the interior and west coast where
the sea breeze and outflow boundaries from ongoing thunderstorms
interact with each other. Heading into this evening, most of the
shower and thunderstorm activity over the interior sections will
dissipate due to loss of daytime heating. During the overnight
hours, a slight weakness in the mid level ridge will develop as a
weak mid level vorticity impulse pushes towards Central and
Southern Florida from the Atlantic. This may provide support for
some additional shower and thunderstorm activity to develop over
the local waters as well as the east coast metro areas heading
towards the pre-dawn hours. Low temperatures tonight will
generally range from the lower 70s across the Lake Okeechobee
region to the upper 70s across the east coast metro areas.

Heading into Sunday, the weak mid level impulse will slowly
push across South Florida as the day progresses. This mid level
energy may provide a bit more lift and support through the day
which could enhance shower and thunderstorm coverage as Sunday
progresses. As the sea breezes develop, chances of showers and
thunderstorms will increase across the east coast metro areas as
the morning progresses. With the weak easterly wind flow in place,
these storms will gradually push towards and favor the interior
and west coast as the afternoon progresses. While strong
thunderstorm development will still remain rather limited, it
cannot be entirely ruled out especially over the interior and
western sections in the afternoon as the mid level impulse moves
over the region during peak diurnal heating. The strongest storms
could contain gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy
downpours. As the steering flow will continue to remain light,
storms will continue to be slow moving. The slow storm motion
combined with the potential for heavy downpours could lead to
localized flooding especially across the metro areas. High
temperatures on Sunday will generally range from the upper 80s
across the east coast to the lower 90s across the interior and
west coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 314 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Not much has changed in forecast philosophy for the lon term. Models
continue to depict an expanding upper/mid level ridge over the
region, which gradually deepens and aligns with sfc high pressure
early next week. This will keep in place a prevailing ESE low over
SoFlo, with a typical summer weather pattern continuing throughout
much of the long term.

Daytime heating and sea breezes will act as the main drivers of
daily afternoon convection. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
should first develop around the East Coast Metro areas during the
late morning/early afternoon hours, then increasing in coverage
and shifting west into interior and Gulf Coast areas during the
late afternoon/early evening hours. The biggest cells could
produce localized flooding as outflow boundaries interact and may
result in slow-moving or even stationary storms.

Temperatures should remain around or slightly warmer than normals,
with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, and heat indices
reaching triple digits. Overnight lows should remain in the mid to
upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail across the region through
the evening hours. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
develop mainly over the interior and west coast this afternoon as
an easterly wind flow remains in place. Periods of sub-VFR
conditions will be possible near storms especially at KAPF. Winds
will gradually become light and variable across all terminals as
this evening progresses.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1229 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

A gentle to moderate easterly wind flow will remain in place
across the local waters through the weekend. This flow may turn
more southeasterly heading into the early to middle portion of
next week. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will remain at
2 feet or less through the weekend and into early next week.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop over
the local waters during this time frame. Winds and waves could be
locally higher in and around showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            78  88  78  89 /  40  70  40  60
West Kendall     77  88  76  90 /  30  70  40  60
Opa-Locka        78  89  77  91 /  40  70  40  60
Homestead        79  88  77  89 /  30  70  40  60
Fort Lauderdale  78  86  78  88 /  40  70  40  50
N Ft Lauderdale  79  88  79  89 /  40  70  30  50
Pembroke Pines   79  90  78  91 /  40  70  40  60
West Palm Beach  78  88  77  90 /  40  70  30  50
Boca Raton       79  88  78  90 /  40  70  30  50
Naples           77  91  76  89 /  30  80  40  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...CWC